Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System (review)

436 China Review International: Vol. 5, No. 2, Fall 1998 NOTES1. Vera Schwarcz, "Strangers No More: Personal Memory in the Interstices of Public Commemoration ," in Memory, History, Opposition under State Socialism, ed. Rubie Watson (Santa Fe, New Mexico: School ofAmerican Research, 1994), p. 47. Dennis Van Vranken Hickey. Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System. Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1997. ?, 233 pp. $49-95- isbn 1-555-87627-7. "National security" is indeed an ambiguous term, with a variety of meanings. Dennis Van Vranken Hickey, an associate professor of political science at Southeast Missouri State University, has done a good job of analyzing the security of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan after the "end" of the Cold War by identifying both military and nonmilitary problems. His book is strengthened, for example , by personal interviews conducted in Taipei, in February 1996. But, he does not include in his select bibliography my article, "'Taiwanization' Programme in the ROCs Armed Forces," published in Jane's Defence Weekly for December 9, 1989. The first three chapters introduce Taiwan's security environment. The next four chapters include such topics as relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC); Taipei's arms purchases in recent years; the democratization ofTaiwan and Taiwan's economic clout; and the pragmatic diplomacy of the ROC. Chapters 8, 9, and 10 examine die kinds of challenges still facing the ROC, such as the call for Taiwan's independence. The concluding chapter suggests that real threats to the survival of the ROC on Taiwan remain. The author points out, for example, that domestic political developments in mainland China are especially worrisome. Hickey rightfully asks whether Taipei could trust a peace agreement signed by parties on both sides of the Taiwan Strait (p. 49), and "would a nonagression pact enhance the island's security?" From a dialectical point ofview, the ROC should never drop its vigilance concerning the ultimate intention of the PRC to bring about the demise of the ROC. In April 1997, Yin Tsung-wen, Director of the ROC National Security Bureau, stated that the probability of Beijing attacking Taiwan within the next five years is slim. y niversi y ^e mam, anajyStS) Hickey says that the PRC leaders do focus on Taiwan despite the ongoing internal power struggle for top leadership. Thus, it is a mistake for Paul A. Godwin to suggest that "most of the Chinese [Communist] Navy cono /Hawai'! Press Reviews 437 sists ofjunk" (p. 185), because, as Tai-ming Cheung, a military expert on the People's Liberation Army, explains, "Western intelligence agencies have always been caught by surprise" by Beijing moves (p. 187). To be sure, Chinese strategists traditionally like to conceal their best weapons until the time is ripe to show them offor even use them. It is good for the author to remind us that "[t]he Taiwan Relations Act [TRA] does not specifically guarantee a U.S. response to an attack directed against Taiwan. . . . [T]he law provides the United States onlywith an option to defend Taiwan" (p. 184; emphasis in original). In other words, "The TRA is not a formal defense treaty" (p. 40). This is because some people in Taiwan think that it will be possible for the United States to come to the aid ofa newly created "Republic ofTaiwan." Foreign scholars and experts living abroad are usually handicapped in terms of access to critical relevant information. Hickey may not have been able to read the September 18, 1996, issue of the Commons Daily, headquartered at Kaohsiung Municipal City, which reported that Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto wanted to include the island ofTaiwan in the security arrangement between Japan and the United States. Citing remarks made by several sources, Hickey believes that Taipei is unlikely to join any collective security system because, quoting Paul H. Kreisberg, "No Asian state is likely to wish to be militarily involved in a major conflict between China and Taiwan" (p. 19). Hickey reminds us as well, citing a U.S. Department of Defense study, that U.S. policy in die Western Pacific has been "remarkably consistent over the past two centuries: peace and security; commercial access...