Trickle-down Hegemony?: China's "Peaceful Rise" and Dam Building on the Mekong

Both Chinese government propaganda and a considerable number of Chinese academics have advocated the theory of China's "peaceful rise": as it gains power, China will behave cooperatively, creating opportunities and advantages, not challenges and threats, for the nations of Southeast Asia. This article asks: how can we assess whether China will, in fact, behave in such a manner? After formulating a theory for the types of issues from which we can best infer Chinese tendencies, this article focuses on Chinese actions on the Mekong (Lancang) river. Ultimately, it concludes that Chinese behaviour on the Lancang does not conform to that predicted by the theory of the peaceful rise — China has by and large pursued its own interests without regard for how these actions will affect its downstream neighbours.