Toward Postconflict Reconstruction

One of the principal lessons of the events of September 11 is that failed states matter—not just for humanitarian reasons but for national security as well. If left untended, such states can become sanctuaries for terrorist networks with a global reach, not to mention international organized crime and drug traffickers who also exploit the dysfunctional environment. As such, failed states can pose a direct threat to the national interests of the United States and to the stability of entire regions.

Afghanistan—torn by decades of war, internal strife, and repression—exemplifies the dangers posed by failed states. When the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, conventional wisdom in the United States and elsewhere held that Afghanistan did not really affect U.S. interests. Since September 11, however, the threat posed by Al Qaeda and the Taliban was recognized, and the United States has responded forcefully and decisively. Expelling Al Qaeda and removing the Taliban regime that supported it from Afghanistan are only the first steps. Helping create a set of conditions that will deny opportunities for Al Qaeda and other would-be terrorists to return is the next step. Finally, helping establish political, economic, social, and security structures that will enable the Afghan people to build a better future for themselves will be key to winning the war of ideas. If the United States and its allies lead, or provide significant assistance to these efforts, Muslims around the world will believe Western assurances that the struggle against terrorism is not a war against Islam.

Although Afghanistan provides the first major reconstruction test of the war on terrorism, it will not be the last. Similar challenges exist elsewhere, in locations ranging from the Middle East and South Asia to the Horn of Africa, where terrorist groups have already exploited the vacuum of state authority and are likely to seek further advantage as Afghanistan ceases to provide them sanctuary. As much as some in the United States would like to avoid involvement in nation building, failed states are a reality that cannot be wished away. Indeed, some of the possible candidates for failure in coming years are those countries in which the United States already has a defined national security interest—from Iraq and the Occupied Territories in the Middle East to North Korea and Cuba. As the situation in Afghanistan has demonstrated, the United States and the international community ignore collapsed or weak states at their peril.

In reality, a broad spectrum of states could be considered failed or failing. These range from states that no longer have a functioning central government, such as Somalia, and states whose central governments no longer control major parts of their territory, such as Pakistan, to those whose central governments are no longer able to provide even the most basic needs for the vast majority of their population, as is the case in some African countries. Although analysts have identified relatively few completely failed states in recent years, the number of failing or weak states that face the potential of widespread conflict and state failure is much greater—approximately 30 cases, or more than 15 percent of the world's countries, by some estimates. ¹ These cases affect, or have the potential to affect, a significant portion of the world's population, economic potential, and regional stability.

Not all failed states are created equal. Not all will be equally important to the United States and the international community. Each stable country must gauge its involvement in failed or failing states according to its own resources and interests. Nor can a "one size fits all" approach be used to address the broad diversity of cases. Although conceptual threads link these situations, the approach to dealing with failed and dangerously weak states must be tailored to each case.

Policy Options for Dealing with Failed States

The United States and other international actors have at least eight major alternatives to consider when facing the problem of a failed state...