Down the Stretch to November

The roller coaster that characterizes most election years appears to have even higher peaks and steeper drops in the 2001-2002 campaign. Immediately prior to the September 11 tragedy, a deteriorating economy and a national focus on domestic issues tilted the political playing field in favor of the Democrats. Just after September 11, the president's job approval rating soared to stratospheric levels, and the issue agenda swung 180 degrees to focus on foreign policy as well as national and homeland security—issues that have traditionally favored Republicans. That playing field seemed to level earlier this year, reflecting the underlying partisan equilibrium that exists throughout the country—neither party has a noticeable advantage, and each individual race is likely to be determined on its own merits. With the two parties today, Americans have seemed uncomfortable with the notion of giving either all the levers of power. As Congress entered its annual summer recess, that situation had not changed...yet.

Presidential Approval: Returning to Earth

In a wave of patriotism and solidarity, a staggering 72 percent of the American people expressed optimism about the country in a late September 2001 NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, as measured by the question: "Do you think the country is headed in the right direction or do you think it's on the wrong track?" Popularized by Richard Wirthlin, President Reagan's pollster, this question has often been called "the Dow Jones indicator ofAmerican politics," reflecting its great predictive value, particularly for the direction of a president's job approval ratings.

Beginning in January 2002, those numbers gradually drifted down, but not to normal midterm levels. These numbers were already unsustainably high, but given the sluggish economy and declining stock market, a downward trend was perfectly predictable. In some private surveys during May and June of 2002, those numbers started declining at a more rapid pace, then plummeted in July. According to the semimonthly Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll, the percentage of people who think the nation is heading in the right direction has gradually declined from an average of 68 percent in the two January surveys, to 60 percent in March, to 54 percent in May; the numbers steadied in June, then dropped nine points to 45 percent in July—a decline of 23 percentage points in six months. ¹ The percentage of people who think the nation is on the wrong track rose from 29 percent in January, to 35 percent in March, 40 percent in May, 39 percent in June, and jumped to 48 percent in July. The net numbers for the nation being on the right track have dropped from 39 points to -3 points since the first of the year. These pessimistic numbers are causing considerable angst among Republican campaign consultants. The impact of these numbers on individual races has not yet been seen, but GOP campaigners fear that it may be coming.

President George W. Bush's job approval ratings similarly returned to Earth from their stratospherically high levels late last year, but took a plunge in July. Since the beginning of January, the president's overall job approval ratings have dropped at a rate of about two to three points per month, then dropped five points in the July Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polling. This decline has occurred virtually across the board in all public surveys— independent, Republican, and Democrat— suggesting that it cannot be considered merely a statistical anomaly.

Pollsters say the link between the drop in right direction numbers and the president's approval ratings is unmistakable. The cumulative impact of a wave of negative press stories rubbed off on President Bush and his administration, whether the public has actually blamed him or not. The plunging stock market, endless stories of corporate corruption and greed, the blame game between the FBI and the CIA, in combination with things entirely outside the realm of government and politics—the Catholic Church's pedophile scandal and the recent wave...