Challenges of the Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership

One of the most dramatic diplomatic turnarounds in the past decade is the deepening of Sino-Russian strategic ties. The roots lie in the 1980s, as Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and Chinese premier Deng Xiaoping sought to overcome decades of ideological, military, and political mistrust and competition. The real momentum that has carried the relationship beyond normalization is a product of the 1990s and of the diplomacy of Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Russian foreign minister Yevgeny Primakov, Russian president Vladimir Putin, and Chinese president Jiang Zemin.

In June of this year, the leaders of the two states met--alongside the leaders of four Central Asian nations--to reaffirm their partnership and interests on major global issues, to expand their economic ties, and to broaden their Central Asian diplomatic forum (the so-called Shanghai Cooperation Organization) to include Uzbekistan. Just weeks later, in July, Zemin arrived in Moscow to sign the Good Neighborly Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. The treaty itself and the extensive official commentary around it made the stated ambitions of Sino-Russian partnership difficult to miss, causing some U.S. observers to warn of the formation of a full-fledged anti-U.S. alliance.

Although such a description overstates what the two states intend, or indeed are capable of achieving, no one should underestimate the strategic significance of these ties. Sino-Russian cooperation is a fact of international life, one that needs to be factored into such key issues as the stability of the inner Asian corridor, missile defense, energy development in Eurasia, and any crisis likely to affect the interests of Russia or China. Even as observers debate the character of this bilateral relationship, Sino-Russian ties continue to strengthen. That cooperation corresponds to the basic interests and needs of both sides and has shown its value practically and materially, particularly in the defense sphere. Unquestionably, it helps a weakened Russia and an emerging China worried about an assertive United States, sending a signal of major-power solidarity on missile defense, intervention in Kosovo, and the need to respect traditional Russian and Chinese zones of influence.

Perhaps most important for U.S. policymakers and analysts, the relationship is in some ways indicative of diplomacy in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the United States as the sole superpower. Sino-Russian behavior is a particularly clear example of a response to U.S. power that is hardly limited to these two states. As long as U.S. military power is not an immediate requirement or threat in the security environment, a number of countries, including even the closest U.S. allies, are tempted to distance themselves from Washington. Russia's and China's public embrace of a "multipolar world" and its deepening defense ties are a special case.

Ties That Bind

The success of the current Sino-Russian partnership arises from a decision by both leaders to accentuate areas of common interest and build on them. The two sides have largely settled, avoided, or waived potential friction. This approach has led to a somewhat lopsided relationship, with defense relations dwarfing other forms of economic interaction and with interaction between the two countries' leadership being far more robust than contact between the two societies at large. Nevertheless, it has worked in establishing and expanding the partnership. Sources of friction will be easier to address as a result of the current strategy and the subsequent strengthening of bilateral ties.

At least four ties bind these two countries. The first and most basic connection is the profound change in the strategic environment--namely the collapse of the Soviet Union. The legacy of Sino-Soviet rivalry could easily have overburdened the Sino-Russian relationship. The two sides disputed portions of the world's longest land border, in the Russian Far East and in Central Asia. Skirmishes between them over disputed sites on the Usuri and Amur Rivers in the late 1960s led to a sustained...