Tapping the Power of Structural Change: Power Cycle Theory as an Instrument in the Toolbox of National Security Decision-Making

This article discusses the potential applications of power cycle theory to support national security assessments. It summarizes how the theory relates economic, military, and demographic trends to the likelihood of major war; contrasts power cycle theory with other international relations theories; and tests the theory’s explanatory power against the historical record. This examination makes the case that power cycle theory is a compelling and important tool for assessing the stability of great power competition in both present and future scenarios.