The United States and Iran: Ready for Rapprochement?

Since the victory of the moderate Mohammed Khatami in the May 1997 Iranian presidential elections, there has been increased optimism that Iranian-American relations will improve. Khatami further fueled these hopes when he made conciliatory statements about the United States at the Islamic summit held in Teheran in December 1997 and in a CNN broadcast to the American people in January 1998. ¹ His interview with CNN was especially dramatic since, unlike previous Iranian revolutionary leaders who tirelessly described the United States as “the Great Satan” or “the Global Arrogance,” Khatami expressed respect for the American people and regret for the 1979 hostage crisis.

Shortly after the CNN interview, the Clinton Administration let it be known that it had proposed to Khatami direct U.S.-Iranian talks aimed at improving bilateral relations just after his inauguration in August 1997. ² President Clinton also issued a statement endorsing Khatami’s proposal for U.S.-Iranian cultural exchanges. ³ In addition, and after complaints made by prominent American businessmen to President Clinton, it was announced that the State Department would conduct a review of the efficacy of U.S. economic sanctions, including those imposed on Iran. ⁴

With such strong momentum having built up on both sides for improved ties, it would appear that U.S.-Iranian relations might soon become normalized - perhaps even reasonably friendly. Nor would such a development be unprecedented. There have been several previous examples of U.S. relations with revolutionary regimes undergoing dramatic improvement. Such a transformation occurred in the United States’ relations with the Soviet Union and China during the presidency of Richard Nixon. More recently, relatively friendly ties have been established with Vietnam, while U.S.-North Korean relations have also undergone a remarkable thaw.

Yet despite the momentum that has already built up and the precedents for dramatically improved American relations with other revolutionary regimes, there continue to be important obstacles to better ties between Washington and Tehran. There are powerful political forces in both countries which appear to be unalterably opposed to even a mild thaw between the two countries.

This article will examine the bilateral context of U.S.-Iranian relations as well as the broader international context affecting those relations. I will argue here that despite the hope for improved ties which has recently built up, the dynamics of U.S.-Iranian bilateral relations are likely to prevent any significant rapprochement in the near future. But if changes occur in the broader international context similar to those which preceded rapprochements between the United States and other revolutionary regimes, then the prospects for improved U.S.-Iranian relations are quite good.

The Bilateral Context

On the American side, the proponents of improved U.S.-Iranian relations see President Khatami as the best hope for bringing about internal liberalization and foreign policy moderation. But he will only be able to accomplish these aims, they argue, if America adopts a friendlier policy toward Iran. The continuation of the present hostile policy, they fear, will undermine his reform efforts. ⁵

They also point out that American economic sanctions against Iran have not succeeded in altering Iranian behavior in the three areas which most concern Washington: Iranian support for terrorism, its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, and its opposition to the American-sponsored Middle East peace process. More importantly, the attempt to force other countries to abide by American sanctions against Iran through the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) of 1996 has only served to irritate American relations with its major Western allies. ⁶ And to the extent that West European and Japanese corporations are doing business in Iran, unilateral U.S. sanctions prevent their American counterparts from operating in this lucrative arena.

Furthermore, even before the election of Khatami, the proponents of improved U.S.-Iranian relations have argued that America would concretely benefit from allowing oil and gas pipelines to be built from Azerbaijan and Central Asia to Iran for shipment to the world market. Following the breakup of the USSR, vast petroleum reserves have been discovered in Azerbaijan, Kazakstan, and Turkmenistan. The shortest, and...