Letter from Jakarta

Images of tropical beaches on Bali, military brutality in East Timor, or languid rubber and palm oil plantations do not adequately convey the complexity and diversity of a country of 200 million people scattered over thousands of islands. Indonesia is a giant, resource-rich developing country whose extraordinary economic progress over the last thirty years is generating growing pressures for a more open and participatory political system. With continued economic growth, it is reasonable to predict Indonesia can evolve toward more representative political institutions, provided it copes successfully with a host of daunting problems. Should the country’s leaders stumble in meeting this challenge, the implications for the region could be dire. As a result, the question of Indonesia’s future direction deserves our attention. Are current worries about political stability in Indonesia justified? Can its spectacular economic success be sustained?

Why Indonesia is Important

Indonesia’s favorable location, well removed from the main crisis points in northeast Asia, makes it easy for the casual observer to overlook its strategic significance in times of peace. In times of crisis, however, its population, geographic location astride some of the world’s busiest trade routes, and abundant natural resources give it unusual importance. Students of history will recall that Japan’s move south at the beginning of the Pacific phase of World War II was aimed at securing access to Indonesia’s supply of oil, gas, and minerals.

Indonesia has been a force for moderation in the world. It was a prime mover behind the Cambodian peace agreement; it actively participates in international peace-keeping efforts; it was the first Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) country to join the Korean Economic Development Organization, which plays a key role in efforts to bring North Korea’s nuclear weapons program under control; and it promotes non-proliferation. Indonesia brokered the recent peace accord between the Philippine government and the Moro nationalist movement. It has sponsored workshops at which the various claimants to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea can explore ways to contain the dispute. And Indonesia surprised even its friends when it agreed to submit a dispute with Malaysia over two minor islands to the International Court of Justice. Despite having the largest Islamic population in the world, Indonesia is strongly committed to secular government and has a national philosophy that stresses tolerance and harmony among different religions.

A leader of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, Indonesia’s international role is now centered on its membership in ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC). Despite its geographic spread and enormous population, it poses no threat to its neighbors. Its defense budget is minuscule and has shrunk as a percentage of its GDP even as its economy has grown. ¹ It has fewer front line fighter aircraft than Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, or Singapore, and even with the acquisition of the nine F-16 A/B aircraft proposed by the Clinton Administration, Indonesia would still rank behind Thailand and Malaysia.

Indonesia’s fate cannot be a subject of indifference to the United States. The shifts in Indonesian domestic and foreign policy in the late 1960s turned Indonesia into a stabilizing factor in Southeast Asia. From a strategic headache for the United States that caused a massive drain on our resources, Southeast Asia has become one of the world’s principal economic success stories. The US Seventh Fleet, which patrols the vast area stretching from the Western Pacific to the Indian Ocean, relies on straits that pass through Indonesian waters in order to make the long transit.

Particularly important from the US standpoint, Indonesia is a prominent member of a host of international groups in which US influence is limited. In addition to the Non-Aligned Movement, where Indonesia led a move away from north-south confrontation toward south-south cooperation, these include the Group of 77 and the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which Indonesia currently chairs at the ministerial level. Given its prominent status in the developing world, Indonesia can be an influence-multiplier. It still reflects a Third-World bent in certain...