Foreword

In ten short years, the international political environment has fundamentally changed. The collapse of the Soviet Union has left the United States rudderless, its institutions locked into traditional response patterns. For half a century, US foreign policy was essentially unidimensional, viewing the world largely in terms of the struggle against communism. Increasingly fragmented and multifaceted, today’s world necessitates a more nuanced approach. Precisely because radical upheavals are transforming the world, sound foreign policy requires solid empirical research and well-functioning institutions. Rather than treating all countries as Cold War playing fields, the United States must now develop a more profound understanding of diverse global and regional realities.

The SAIS Review marks the fifth anniversary of the Soviet Union’s demise with three articles focusing on the aftermath. The first two look at vital, turbulent, relatively unfamiliar parts of Eurasia. Duygu Bazoglu Sezer chronicles the ferment in the Black Sea region. She highlights the ancient currents of ethnic strife which still flow in the long-troubled and restless Caucasus. Large and mostly unexploited quantities of oil provide an additional edge to these tensions. Furthermore, the independence of Ukraine and the Caucasian states has reversed the trajectory of Russia’s historic southward expansion, reviving Moscow’s lingering fears of entrapment. Mark Katz has gone beneath the surface of the apparent stability in most of Central Asia to find two significant threats: the on-going civil war in Tajikistan and Russia’s interference in Central Asian economic development. To ensure peace and stability in this strategic but long-isolated part of the world, Western policy should encourage Russia to allow the Central Asian republics to emerge from dependency. Such engagement requires an understanding of the individuals shaping policy in Russia. John Dunlop reviews Aleksandr Lebed’s statements and writings to gain insight into this complex and compelling leader. Lebed’s Eurasianist views on re-establishing the former space of the Soviet empire and keen sense of personal destiny seem likely to play a significant role in the evolution of Russian foreign policy. To complement this section, Michael Mandelbaum reminds us that nuclear weapons and the Cold War were “born twins.” He continues the discussion about the role of these weapons in US foreign policy now that classical deterrence policy is no longer valid. He demonstrates their continued relevance and argues for flexible policies governing their use.

With the end of containment, intellectual horizons have expanded to include other global concerns. One of these is the linkage between environmental change and national security. Assistant Secretary of State Eileen Claussen reaffirms the State Department’s commitment to international environmental issues. Her article highlights the extent to which the United States still depends on traditional diplomatic tools, such as multilateral agreements and international institutions. As the United States becomes increasingly involved in alleviating humanitarian and environmental crises around the world, it should not neglect the institutions which may be able to prevent them in the first place. Vaclav Smil offers a cautionary tale to those who would forget history. In spite of recent speculation concerning China’s impending environmental collapse, he argues that it is actually passing through an economic and environmental transition similar to the West’s own historical experience, albeit on a large scale and at a more rapid pace. A sense of the past is critical to facing the future, something the “new securitarians” sometimes forget. P.J. Simmons and Geoffrey Dabelko outline the on-going debate concerning environment and security linkages, as well as the many US government initiatives. They emphasize the need for definitional clarity, pragmatism, and strategic policy planning.

In a letter from Cairo, Edward S. Walker, Jr., the US Ambassador to Egypt, highlights the need for a more mature bilateral relationship with this important regional power. For too long, the peace process has dominated our thinking. He advocates a more meaningful partnership between Washington and Cairo, based on cooperation in other areas, such as economic development and democratization. Emphasizing a similar need to appreciate complexity, Luisa Palacios and Daniel Lederman go behind the myths surrounding the size and role of the state apparatus in Latin America. They demonstrate that...