Central Asian Stability: Under Threat?

The breakup of the Soviet Union in December 1991 resulted in the creation of fifteen separate states, including five in Central Asia: Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. At the time, many people questioned the stability of an independent Central Asia. They wondered whether the newly independent states of Central Asia would succumb to intra- and inter-state conflicts, the influence of Islamic fundamentalism, or interference from neighboring states. Five years later, however, Central Asia appears surprisingly stable despite both initial doubts and Tajikistan’s protracted civil war which up to now has been contained within that country.

Now, however, the stability Central Asia has enjoyed during the past five years is coming under increasing threat. One threat is Tajikistan’s civil war, overshadowed in the Western press by the war in Chechnya. In 1996, the Moscow-backed Tajik government suffered a series of defeats. Moreover, the government must now contend with unfavorable developments in Afghanistan. Before its overthrow by the Taliban in September 1996 the Afghan government, under Burhanuddin Rabbani, had moved closer to Moscow and was cooperating in efforts to prevent the Tajik opposition forces from using Afghan territory as a staging ground for incursions into Tajikistan. The Taliban is unlikely to continue this policy, thus complicating Russia’s efforts to protect the Tajik government.

A greater threat to Central Asian stability, however, is Russia’s economic policy toward the region; specifically, the Yeltsin administration’s efforts to control Central Asian petroleum exports and limit the share of profits collected by both the Central Asian governments and Western oil companies. Although Russia’s economic policy does not intentionally seek to undermine Central Asian stability, it may do just that, resulting in a Central Asia more vulnerable to problems the region has thus far managed to avoid.

This article will discuss the sources of stability that the Central Asian states—except Tajikistan—currently enjoy, how the civil war in Tajikistan and Russian economic policy threaten that stability, and how the possible collapse of this stability might affect the region.

The Stable Four: Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan

In 1991, many analysts predicted that the independent Central Asian states would encounter internal ethnic strife, territorial disputes, and the emergence of Islamic fundamentalism. Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, however, have experienced almost none of these. Certainly, the potential for ethnic conflict exists in all four states. Kazakstan contains almost as many Russians as Kazaks. The Russians are concentrated in the north of the country and constitute a majority there. Some Russians have sought to detach this area from Kazakstan and join it with neighboring Russia. ¹ In Uzbekistan, tension exists between the Uzbek majority and the large Tajik minority living in the Samarkand region. ² In Kyrgyzstan, before independence, there was extensive inter-communal fighting between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in the Fergana Valley. ³ Turkmenistan, by contrast, is ethnically a relatively homogenous state that contains only small non-Turkmen communities. The Turkmen, however, are divided among tribes which have retained their identities—and rivalries—even after Sovietization. ⁴ Yet despite the potential for internal ethnic conflict, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have largely managed to avoid it.

These states have also managed to avoid internal political conflict. No significant opposition to the authoritarian regimes has developed in any of them. None was ever allowed to develop in Turkmenistan. ⁵ In Uzbekistan, the opposition Birlik and Erk movements, both of which were sizable at the time of independence, have been effectively crushed by the Uzbek regime. ⁶ The several opposition groups that exist in Kazakstan are all relatively small and weak. ⁷ In Kyrgyzstan, opposition to Akaev’s increasingly authoritarian rule appears to be limited to a portion of the educated elite. ⁸

The spread of Islamic fundamentalism to the newly independent staes of Central Asia was widely anticipated after the collapse of the USSR. Since independence, Central Asia has certainly experienced a revival of interest in the religious and cultural aspects of Islam, and large numbers of mosques have been built, often with financial support from Saudi Arabia. Even the ex-communist rulers now make a...