India's Nuclear Policy (review)

Bharat Karnad, one of India's leading strategic thinkers, presents a thoughtful and provocative argument challenging the view that India's growing nuclear arsenal contributes to instability in South Asia. In his view, India's development of a nuclear force that is credible, effective, and survivable ("credible minimum deterrence") is essential for it to remain a moderate and responsible state and to become a valuable counterweight to China.

Karnad's description of the evolution of India's nuclear program underscores how the nation developed its weapons autonomously, but firmly integrated its strategic thinking with the prevailing theories of nuclear warfare. He discusses how leading powers have recently modernized arsenals and confirmed policies on the use of nuclear weapons. By linking India's strategy and posture to those of the top tier of nuclear weapons states, Karnad argues that India deserves to be considered a responsible power rather than a pariah along the lines of North Korea or aspirant nuclear powers such as Iran.

The author labors hard to alter the perception that South Asia, with its history of warfare between India and Pakistan, has become a nuclear flash point. Trough his analysis of theories of limited war and an assessment of previous conflicts, Karnad shows how challenging terrain, limited offensive capabilities, and overwhelming logistical difficulties would make a decisive conventional military victory unlikely. More importantly, Karnad contends that India's multiple cultural and historical ties with Pakistan render the chance of an all-out conventional war between the nations near zero and the likelihood of a nuclear exchange even more remote. In his view, Pakistan is becoming a "sideshow."

Instead, India's greatest security threat is China, which possesses sharper cultural, political, and economic differences. After detailing several sources of tension that could trigger a conflict, Karnad concludes that peaceful coexistence depends upon India achieving strategic parity with China. This is a notion he laments is not shared by many of India's politicians, whom he chastises for not committing more resources to developing India's triad or acting more forcefully "in wielding its nuclear forces to deter China's egregiously provocative policies" (p. 139).

Will the U.S. and India, following the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, be able to act in concert to counter the rising power of China? Karnad is not optimistic. In his view, the agreement "could turn out to be a sugar-coated poison pill for Indo-US relations" (p. 157). For Karnad, the deal will inhibit, rather than facilitate, India's nuclear weapons program. He cautions that India's agreement not to conduct nuclear tests will perilously freeze its technology upon a flawed design. Moreover, the required splitting of India's nuclear program into civilian and military sections will eliminate the tremendous efficiencies it had enjoyed by combining expertise and limited resources. Finally, he warns that the U.S. may use the agreement as leverage to pressure India to agree to an international Fissile-Material Cut-Off treaty before it has produced a credible minimum deterrent. For Karnad, the deal places onerous terms and conditions on India's weapons programs under a nonproliferation regime, rather than acknowledging India's status as a responsible nuclear power and a potential counterweight to China. He suggests that the U.S. desired this outcome, but cautions against a backlash in India against an agreement that is much less favorable than its citizens have been led to believe.

Karnad has crafted a valuable book that merits attention by anyone interested in the implications of the growing power of India and China for peace, order, and stability in South Asia. Although Karnad may not convince all readers that India's expanding nuclear arsenal will be a source of stability, they will be challenged to reconsider their thoughts on the current security situation in South Asia and the role of nuclear weapons in the twenty-first century.