Mitigating Distributional Impact of Fuel Pricing Reform: The Indonesian Experience

In 2005, the Indonesian government implemented a massive fuel price increase. While the benefits of the reform on efficiency grounds have been widely acknowledged, there is still debate about whether the reform was equitable. That question is answered in this paper using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with disaggregated households that allows for a rich and accurate distributional story. Analysis of various counter-factual scenarios analysis of the reform is carried out. It suggests that the reform could have been progressive if it increased only vehicle fuel prices. However, it tends to increase inequality especially in urban areas when the price of domestic fuel (kerosene) is also increased. Proper and effective compensation is important in mitigating the distributional cost or poverty impact of the reform. A uniform cash transfer to poor households that disregards poor households' heterogeneity tends to over-compensate the rural poor but under-compensate the urban poor.