Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa (review)

Over the past decade Rotberg has edited a series of books for the World Peace Foundation regarding war and peace in various parts of the world, and it is timely that he has turned his attention to the Horn. Since 9/11 the US in particular has regarded the Horn as an area of potential if not actual significance in the ‘war on terror’, even creating a new base from which to operate in Djibouti. Given the involvement of several contributors with a background in the US government, as well as the customary American academics, this collection looks rather like the informed and semi-official view from Washington.

After Rotberg’s opening overview the book proceeds through Somalia and Somaliland with Kenneth Menkhaus, which is appropriate since it is the stateless character of the former area (as well as the US having got it spectacularly wrong in the 1990s) that has been the main concern with regard to the problems of addressing terrorism. He is of the view, however, that statelessness is not necessarily that helpful for Al Qaeda because of the ‘danger of betrayal and extortion’. Lange Schermerhorn is next up on Djibouti, a country that has hitherto attracted limited attention, but is once more at ‘the eye of the storm’. Created as a French outpost on the Bab Al Mandeb straits, it now has a similar purpose for the US as well. Dan Connell discusses the ever-growing authoritarianism of Eritrea, once so beloved of western Afro-Marxists, and still trying to punch above its weight across the Horn – rivalry with Ethiopia always at the forefront of its moves. David Shinn gives a very full and balanced account of Ethiopia. In addition to its ethnic tension, the position of the large Muslim population always needs careful political as well as security understanding. Tim Carney gives a brief and straightforward view of Sudan, the place where Osama bin Laden resided from 1991 to 1996 and where he was encouraged in his building of Al Qaeda. The same people are still largely in power, though now proclaiming their cooperation with the US on terrorism (though not on Darfur). The book rightly includes Yemen, for the Horn has long been almost as Arabian as African. Robert Burrowes feels that though Al Qaeda has been a threat there, the more conservative traditions of Yemeni Islam are still firmly in place. Finally Johnnie Carson considers Kenya, where Al Qaeda attacks have been mounted, and particularly the Muslim community on the coast. This brings us back to Kenya’s recent efforts to intercept the fleeing supporters of the Islamic Courts in the latest strike on possible terrorists from Mogadishu.

What is most noticeable is the extent to which all the governments of the region have gone out of their way to join in cooperation with the US in the ‘war on terror’ – even to the point of rivalling each other, as with Eritrea and Ethiopia. But that is also the real point, for their motives have less to do with this ‘global’ war than their domestic and regional politics. The US is too powerful for them to resist supporting it in its self-proclaimed struggle, but the issues for the governments of the Horn are much nearer home, while overt cooperation with the US may be damaging domestically. Only when the US understands the many and varied local problems of the Horn will it really contribute to a more secure environment. Security cooperation may protect governments of the Horn in the short term, but of itself will do little to address the underlying issues that contribute to the making of the ‘war on terror’: keeping the lid on is not enough.