Contending Political Paradigms in Africa: Rationality and the Politics of Democratization in Kenya and Zambia (review)

The wave of democratization in Africa has been followed by a wave of books on the subject. Only a handful of authors, however, have attempted systematic comparison of cases. Done well, more systematic comparison holds the promise of providing better explanation of convergences and divergences in the path of democracy (however flawed and fragile) across the continent. Nasong'o deserves praise for attempting such a comparative study, focusing on an important pairing of experiences in Kenya and Zambia. Unfortunately, weaknesses in the theoretical framework and limited originality mean this book does not provide us with a great deal that is new, although it is a well-written overview of both the conceptual terrain and the two case studies.

The book's central aim is to explain why the incumbent authoritarian regime in Zambia succumbed to opposition forces in the initial multiparty elections, but the successor governing party has managed to cling to power ever since, while in Kenya the incumbent regime survived the first two elections but succumbed to the opposition in 2002. A brief introduction states that the book will use the rational choice approach as its theoretical framework and provides three key explanatory variables: civil society, politicized ethnicity, and electoral system design. Each chapter examines a given theme in both cases. After two chapters outlining the emergence of the authoritarian regimes and the forces of opposition, the heart of the book analyzes the three variables in turn. The last two chapters look at the rational choice approach in greater depth and at democratic consolidation, concluding on a relatively optimistic note that despite the many problems, significant liberalization has occurred in both countries and the prospects for consolidation appear favorable in the long term.

The book's chief strength is its clarity and coverage. Nasong'o knows and employs the case study literature well. The presentation of the conceptual literature is not as complete, but the basic arguments are all present and well stated. The book would be useful in an undergraduate course on African politics to introduce students to most of the important debates on the subject and provide them with a clear comparison of two interesting cases.

Unfortunately, in terms of insights to further the scholarly agenda, the book is weak. Those looking for a sophisticated use of rational choice theory to explain the interesting similarities and differences between the cases will be disappointed. Nasong'o makes use of this approach only at its most general level: the notion that political actors consciously act in their self-interest. To be useful as a theoretical framework, a rational choice approach must be able to explain why self-interest leads to divergent outcomes. Nasong'o argues, for instance, that Zambia's authoritarian regime was more inclusive than Kenya's, suggesting that both Kaunda and Kenyatta acted out of self-interest, but he provides no argument for why Kenyatta's (and Moi's) self-interest led to more exclusive regimes than did Kaunda's. In places, other theoretical frameworks, left implicit, seem to bear more explanatory weight than does rational choice: the chapter on ethnicity provides a useful explanation of why politicized ethnicity has led to greater fragmentation in Kenya than in Zambia, focusing on such matters as urbanization and the exclusiveness of the authoritarian regime, but none of this analysis derives clearly from a rational choice approach. The final weakness is a lack of originality. Other than a handful of interviews, mostly with indigenous scholars, the book is based completely on the secondary literature, providing neither significant new arguments nor new data.