Axis of Evil: Threat or Chimera?

On 20 September 2001, before a joint session of Congress, President George W. Bush addressed the American people and named Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorist network responsible for the 11 September attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. He also condemned the Taliban regime in Afghanistan for aiding and abetting al Qaeda. Bush said, "Our enemy is a radical network of terrorists, and every government that supports them," and that the war on terrorism "will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped, and defeated." ¹ Ostensibly, the only terrorist group with demonstrated global reach was (and still is) al Qaeda.

In an October radio address to the nation, the rhetoric began to shift slightly and subtly when the president stated that "America is determined to oppose the state sponsors of terror" and that the "enemy is the terrorists themselves, and the regimes that shelter and sustain them." And instead of a war against terrorist groups with global reach, Bush spoke of a "global campaign against terror." ²

In a November Rose Garden ceremony, welcoming back aid workers Heather Mercer and Dayna Curry, who had been rescued from Afghanistan, President Bush remarked, "If anybody harbors a terrorist, they're a terrorist. If they fund a terrorist, they're a terrorist. If they house terrorists, they're terrorists. . . . If they develop weapons of mass destruction that will be used to terrorize nations, they will be held accountable." Thus, the president linked the war on terrorism to weapons of mass destruction, claiming that countries that develop weapons of mass destruction were always part of his definition of terrorists. And he specifically cited Iraq and North Korea as needing to allow inspectors into their respective countries. In response to a question about the consequences for Saddam Hussein if he did not allow inspectors into Iraq, Bush said, "He'll find out," ³ which had a similar tone to the demands placed on the Taliban on 20 September and fueled speculation that the administration was planning military action against Iraq.

The rhetoric about rogue states and weapons of mass destruction was used again when President Bush addressed cadets at the Citadel in December: "Rogue states are clearly the most likely sources of chemical and biological and nuclear weapons for terrorists." And Bush was explicit about expanding the war on terrorism: "America's next priority to prevent mass terror is to protect against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them." ⁴

In his State of the Union address on 29 January 2002, President Bush did not make a single direct reference to either al Qaeda or Osama bin Laden. Seemingly forgotten were previous comments about wanting bin Laden "dead or alive." ⁵ Instead, he stated that the United States would be "steadfast and patient and persistent in the pursuit of two great objectives. First, we will shut down terrorist camps, disrupt terrorist plans, and bring terrorists to justice. And second, we must prevent the terrorists and regimes who seek chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons from threatening the United States and the world." The president specifically named North Korea, Iran, and Iraq as regimes that "constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world" and that "by seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger." ⁶

Yet a little over a week after the president named the axis of evil, Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and said that "al Qaeda leaders still at large are working to reconstitute the organization and to resume its terrorist operations" and that the al Qaeda terrorist network was still "the most immediate and serious threat" to the United States. ⁷ Subsequently, the New York Times reported that Abu Zubaydah, a thirty-year-old Palestinian, had become al Qaeda's new chief of operations and was believed...