The 21st Century at Work: Forces Shaping the Future Workforce and Workplace in the United States (review)

The title of this book suggests a comprehensive examination of data used to predict the future of work. Unfortunately the authors' unimaginative canvassing of a limited range of data along with confining the study to "shifting demographic patterns, the pace of technological change, and the path of economic globalization" leads to predictable and time-worn conclusions.

This book finds that the future will rely on high-skilled jobs and lifelong learning (which will be enhanced by testing and privatization of education); be shaped by the positive impacts of globalization, outsourcing, companies' focusing on "core competencies"; and build on high-technology developments such as nanotechnology, biotechnoloy, and information technology.

There is nothing new here. This 2004 study already seems quaint in 2005—and even wrong. For example, while the authors extol the benefits of outsourcing, a comprehensive study by Deloitte Consulting recently found serious problems in both private and public outsourcing. That Deloitte—a consultant on outsourcing—would reach these results suggests that a future built on outsourcing is one built on an unstable foundation.

The authors fail to include or consider information that does not fit with their sanguine predictions by circumscribing the issues they consider, relying on information limited mostly to economic studies, and analyzing it only from a conservative viewpoint. As a result, the authors ignore obvious issues and miss nuances of the issues they do address. For example, regarding the need to increase workforce participation, they limit their discussion to enticing mothers and older workers to enter or remain in the workforce and on the role of immigration and Hispanic workers. They barely mention Black workers and utterly fail to consider how to address their high unemployment rates.

The authors fail to consider how globalization will be affected by declining petroleum reserves and increasing costs of transportation. They see the ballooning deficit and trade imbalance only as generating goods and jobs. They ignore scientific and technological developments, other than information technology and biotechnology.

Well before this book was published, the authors must have been aware of the war in Iraq and the increasing instability in Africa and the Middle East. The authors do not consider any effects of these international conflicts and the political and social dynamics of a global economy—the depletion of the workforce as soldiers are placed overseas; the fragility of long supply lines; global warming and its potential impact on weather; declining rates of unionization; and pollution and other environmental contamination. They pay no attention to the impact of tax policy, judicial interpretations that restrict the enforcement of employment laws, and the increase in low-skilled, poorly paid workers who lack benefits, and increasing poverty and inequality.

Furthermore, they fail to integrate information they do discuss. For example, they are sanguine about the impact of outsourcing and low wages for high-skilled jobs abroad, yet fail to explain how they conclude that education inevitably leads to higher wages in the United States. While dazzled by ideas such as lifelong learning, they ignore the problem of underfunding the basic education infrastructure, resulting in the continuing deterioration of our educational systems.

Finally the book limits its usefulness by having no index.