Japan's Deteriorating ties with China: The Koizumi Factor

In April 2005, anti-Japanese protests erupted in many cities in China and marked the lowest point in Sino-Japanese relations in more than 30 years. That these protests took place during the tenure of the Koizumi Administration should come as no surprise. Indeed, the policies and personality of Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro have both contributed to this abysmal state of relations between the two neighbours. The Koizumi Administration has abandoned the low-posture, post-war framework of appeasing Beijing which had the following features: no explicit mentioning of Taiwan as falling within the ambit of the US-Japan Alliance, repeated offering of apologies over its past invasion of the Chinese Mainland and extending generous Official Development Assistance (ODA) in lieu of reparations.

This article traces the growing assertiveness of the Koizumi Administration towards China. While the deterioration of bilateral ties is the responsibility and fault of both parties, Prime Minister Koizumi himself is a key problem — not a problem-solver in this worsening of Sino-Japanese relations. A main reason for the rising friction between Beijing and Tokyo is the fundamental shift in the political economy of East Asia: China's rise coupled with Japan's stagnation. The angst of being overshadowed by China's phenomenal economic growth and the fear that this growth will translate into greater Chinese political influence and military power in East Asia have made many Japanese elites wary, if not hostile, to China. Notwithstanding such sentiments within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the rightwing mass media, the Japanese Prime Minister's personality is crucial in bilateral ties: a more reconciliatory Prime Minister will help mitigate bilateral differences, while a more assertive and combative one will make matters worse. Had Koizumi not adamantly insisted on making annual visits to the Yasukuni Shrine (the symbol of Japanese militarism towards the Chinese and Koreans), then the burden of history which bedevils Sino-Japanese relations could have been lightened by half.

The following areas of the Koizumi Administration's assertiveness towards China are examined: the decision to end ODA, the issue of an apology over Imperial Japan's invasion of the Chinese Mainland and the unprecedented and explicit mentioning of Taiwan as a common strategic objective for the US-Japan Alliance. It then examines the absence of politicians in the present Koizumi cabinet who are reputedly friendly towards China. The main conclusion is that the departure of Koizumi as Prime Minister will not necessarily lead to an improvement in Sino-Japanese relations. Indeed, Koizumi's successor might be even more assertive and prickly towards China.

Ending ODA to China

In March 2005, Foreign Minister Machimura Nobutaka officially announced that as of fiscal 2008 when Beijing hosts the Olympic Games, Japan would cease extending new yen loans to China.¹ The ostensible reason (tatemae) is that Japanese funds are no longer needed given China's rapid economic growth. The real reason (honne) for ending ODA is the rise of negative sentiment in Japan towards China, stemming in part from the frustration generated by the phenomenon of "China rising, Japan stagnating".² Many Japanese believe that Japan must stand up to China to avoid being displaced by an ascendant country.

In recent years, Japanese ODA has become less important to China's economic development. By 2004, Japan's cumulative ODA to China was 3.3 trillion yen (USD31.5 billion), a fraction of China's cumulative foreign direct investment of USD563 billion.³ Many Japanese, who are unhappy that Beijing has increased its military budget by more than 10 per cent annually and even offered aid to neighbouring countries, feel that Beijing does not appreciate Tokyo's generous ODA which has been used mainly to help improve the Mainland's infrastructure. They are angered by virulent anti-Japanese nationalism in China as evidenced by the abusive behaviour of Chinese soccer hooligans towards the Japanese national team during...