Enriching Public Discourse: Policy Analysis in Representative Democracies

All governments produce policy analysis. It has always been predictive and value-laden. Consider the story in Genesis of Joseph, perhaps the first professional policy analyst celebrated by name. He predicted seven years of plenty followed by seven years of scarcity in interpreting the Pharaoh's dreams. The Pharaoh readily appreciated the value, both for himself and his people, of the policy of stockpiling during the years of plenty to avoid famine during the years of scarcity, and he delegated all his authority (save the throne itself) to Joseph so he could implement it. Since the Enlightenment, the basis for prediction has become more rational and the consideration of social values has become more explicit. The emergence of representative government has reduced the likelihood that any policy analyst will ever enjoy Joseph's immense influence and power. It has also resulted in a proliferation of roles for policy analysis. The project of designing institutions to promote the good society ought not ignore these roles.

Yet the task of assessing the social desirability of the possible roles for policy analysis is complicated because it cannot be isolated from the context of particular political regimes. In order to assess appropriate roles for policy analysis in the good society, one must assume at least the general form of the political institutions of the good society. Would these forms be radically different from those we observe in mature representative democracies today? Several considerations make me think that they would not. On the one hand, the Western democracies have done quite well overall during the last century. Although there have been some setbacks, they have generally expanded the politically enfranchised proportions of their populations, defended themselves from aggressive totalitarian states, protected human rights, facilitated greater health, wealth, and longevity, and improved the quality of the physical environment. I thus agree with Karol Soltan that, as Madisonian constitutionalism and capitalism have been successes, there is no need for a Third Way (Soltan, 1996: 78-79). On the other hand, there are certainly limitations to the performance of representative government. At the deepest theoretical level, the problems of social choice implied by Arrow's General Possibility Theorem argue that no democratic system can be relied upon to reveal consistently the "will of the people" (Riker, 1982). With respect to representative government, the problems of collective action (Olson, 1973, 1982) and the costs of monitoring representatives suggest it is unlikely that institutions can be discovered that guarantee equal voice to the various interests in society. The successes of representative democracies, coupled with the inherent theoretical limits to their perfection, lead me to assume that the good society would have a political regime not too dissimilar from those found in Western Europe and the United States. To facilitate a more concrete discussion, I take the contemporary political institutions of the United States as the general context for considering the role of policy analysis in the good society. ²

Within this context, I make the following arguments. First, policy analysis can improve public discourse by contributing policy alternatives to the political process, by providing better predictions of the consequences of proposed policies, and by making explicit arguments for the consideration of the full range of social values, especially those that tend to be underrepresented in representative democracy. Second, institutions to promote these contributions can be imagined. Indeed, some already exist. Third, although greater participation in policy analysis is desirable, the most socially beneficial institutional changes will be those that expand participation beyond the most prominent stakeholders. Finally, a professionalization of policy analysis that promotes the virtues of analytical integrity, humility, patience, and fortitude would enable policy analysts to play more effective roles in promoting the good society.

What Policy Analysis Offers

Policy analysis takes many forms. Its essence as professional craft, however, lies in the systematic comparison of alternative policies in terms of social values. Neither policy alternatives nor relevant social values always arise fully formed in public discourse. At...