The Future of International Coalitions: How Useful? How Manageable?

The most dramatic political result of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States has been the construction of a global coalition against terrorism. The diversity of this coalition is unprecedented. It includes the United States' NATO allies, Japan, and Australia. It also involves such unexpected partners as China and Russia, as well as Pakistan and India. Major international organizations, specifically the United Nations and the leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, have condemned the terrorist attacks, as has the Conference of the Islamic Organization.

For the first time in its 52-year history, NATO has invoked Article 5, under which an attack on one alliance member is considered an attack on all members. Also for the first time, the Australian government has invoked Article 4 of the 1951 ANZUS Treaty (a security treaty among Australia, New Zealand, and the United States) in order to meet this common danger. Great Britain, Canada, and Australia committed military forces to the coalition's operations against Osama bin Laden's terrorist network and the Taliban regime. France, Germany, and Italy have indicated that they may contribute military support personnel to a peace stabilization force in Afghanistan, as have several Muslim countries. Japan, in a major departure from its past reluctance to send military units overseas, has deployed naval warships in a support role.

This coalition is remarkable not only because of the large number of countries involved from all around the world, but also the apparent recognition that the fight against terrorism will be a prolonged one--one that will involve diplomatic pressure and financial sanctions, as well as military force. Never in world history have so many countries combined together against a common threat in this manner.

The war against terrorism will be unprecedented as it spreads across a wide range of countries, not only in the Middle East. It will require patience and close coordination. Victories will not be readily apparent in the traditional sense of battlefield successes. As President George W. Bush has said, the collective efforts of the coalition will require "the patient accumulation of successes." Even bin Laden's death will not be the end of the matter by any means. In his book about bin Laden, Yossef Bodansky observes, "Ultimately the quintessence of bin Laden's threat is his being a cog, albeit an important one, in a large system that will outlast his own demise. ..." ¹

Can this unprecedented coalition against terrorism hang together under such difficult circumstances? A coalition, by definition, is a temporary combination of parties that retain distinctive principles. Already, views have differed over the bombing campaign in Afghanistan. Opinions vary--not least within the United States itself--about whether the war should extend to Iraq. The installation of a new regime in Kabul to replace the Taliban is a step fraught with danger, as is the wooing of the military regime in Islamic Pakistan. Although the coalition members do share a common fear of terrorism, the fact remains that only the United States has suffered a severe terrorist attack. The risk that the war may widen will put intense pressure on the coalition.

The events that led to the brokering of the coalition must be examined, as well as the performance of the coalition's military, diplomatic, and financial coordination. Finally, what are the risks for the future of the coalition, especially if the war widens? What are the limits of the international coalition against terrorism?

A Seminal Event?

The assertion that the events of September 11 initiated a fundamentally new era in world politics has become commonplace. The spectacular building of the coalition against terrorism is cited as evidence, as is the almost universal condemnation of the terrorist attacks. On September 12, the prominent French newspaper Le Monde proclaimed, "We are all Americans now." Attendees at the International Institute for Strategic Studies' annual conference, held in Geneva, coincidentally the day after the attacks, came to the...