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The Washington Quarterly 24.3 (2001) 229-234



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The Silver-Bullet Presidency

Charles E. Cook Jr.


One of the earliest lessons parents teach their children is that "first impressions are lasting impressions." The same lesson is true for newly minted presidents. In his new book, Eyewitness to Power, David Gergen wrote, "Recent history suggests that the true significance of the First Hundred Days is this: they are the most precious time in the life of a president to define who he is and what he is seeking to achieve through his leadership." Gergen continues, "In those fourteen weeks, more than any other time in his presidency, he sets the stage for his entire stewardship," later arguing that "the public's judgment forms in a matter of weeks and, once formed, soon calcifies. It's a matter of public psychology."

Gergen, a veteran of the Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton White Houses portrays the importance of this period clearly. How the new administration of George W. Bush fares is less clear. Indeed, any objective analysis thus far would likely leave a listener yearning for the fabled "one-armed economist" that President Lyndon Johnson once desired as he tired of hearing the phrases, "On the one hand ..., but on the other hand..."

Presidential administrations naturally undergo shifting fortunes during their four-year journey, particularly in the early stages. But every time fortunes shift, it seems more pronounced than before, even when it isn't. The Bush administration certainly started under inauspicious circumstances, winning with a popular-vote minority marred by disputed results in pivotal Florida. Republicans not only lost the popular presidential vote for a third consecutive election, but also lost ground in the House of Representatives for the third consecutive cycle (although by only one seat this time) and suffered [End Page 229] a net loss of four seats in the Senate, further dampening party spirits about the win. House Majority Whip Tom DeLay's victory declaration that Republicans had won a great victory rang hollow because all three bodies (the House, Senate, and the presidency) are essentially tied. The responsibility for governing, when considered with their microscopic majorities in the House and Senate, has presented a sobering challenge to the GOP. Indeed, back in December, some thought that they might be lucky to get the Pledge of Allegiance approved by Congress.

Then Bush's honeymoon began. Despite the frequent periods of partisan rancor, Americans are inherently an upbeat, optimistic people. Bush seems to be a very likeable, approachable fellow, and all but the most partisan Democrats wanted him to succeed, the economy to do well, and the nation to prosper. Combined with the sense of relief that many felt from the end of the controversies, embarrassments, and occasional scandals of the Clinton administration, Americans were ready to move on, even after the turmoil in Florida. The flap over President Bill Clinton's last-minute pardons further underscored or enhanced the relief that many felt with the transition of power. Regardless how one felt about Clinton's policies, the tawdriness that came with them was not something that anyone, except the late-night talk show hosts, were going to miss.

For a time, the new Bush administration made few mistakes, admitted them quickly, and effectively moved on, losing little of their precious political capital in the process. Meetings began and ended on time and many remarked that they bore little resemblance to Clinton administration meetings, which were often compared to frat-house bull sessions.

Democrats discovered a problem that frustrated many Republicans during the Clinton years. The party outside the White House has a very difficult time communicating its message at the same level as the president. Who speaks for the Democratic Party? Its most recent, if badly discredited, president? Its most recent standard-bearer? Its congressional leaders or veteran lawmakers? Its prospective presidential contenders for 2004? Democratic governors? The correct answer may be all, or at least many, of the above. While a president can often drive into the public consciousness one message every week, the other party has many voices that are rarely...

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