Taiwan Rides the Democratic Dragon

Twelve years after the end of martial law, Taiwan's young democracy is poised at the edge of a breakthrough. Although the island's political system has evolved at remarkable speed, the struggle for pluralism is far from over. Above all, the island has yet to pass the real test of a liberal democratic system: the peaceful alternation of the parties in power. There is a very real possibility this will happen in the March 18 presidential elections--only the second in Chinese history. The vote will likely determine whether or not the Taiwanese are able to transcend the domination of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party and enter a new, more complex era of political pluralism. This in turn depends on the obscure inner workings of two powerful sets of circumstances: the continuing effectiveness of the KMT's grassroots political machine and the ongoing threat of military action by the People's Republic of China (PRC).

The island's political climate changed profoundly during the 1990's. Election campaigns are now freewheeling and electoral procedures are fair. The mass media operate with little political constraint, although it is true that economic pressures weigh heavily. In every respect--freedom of the press, access to information, personal liberty and civil rights, fair and open elections, government responsiveness--Taiwan is tangibly more democratic today than it was 25 years ago, when the KMT held sway over a fearful population.

During the first direct presidential election, in 1996, the KMT nominee, Lee Teng-hui, won with 54 percent of the vote. His closest opponent received less than half that share. This year's race, a three-way contest involving the ruling party nominee, an independent who broke off from the ruling party, and an opposition candidate, is much more competitive--in fact, as of this writing, too close to call.

In mid-November, Taiwan's democracy took a significant--albeit little-noticed--"imaginative leap" forward. For the first time, a plurality of voters told pollsters they believed that the independent breakaway candidate, James Soong, would win Taiwan's presidential election in March 2000. This should not have been news. For months, surveys found that Soong enjoyed nearly twice the support of his closest opponent. Yet, in poll after poll, Taiwanese expressed their conviction that the ruling party nominee, Vice President Lien Chan, would win the election, despite Soong's commanding lead, and despite the fact that Lien trails both Soong and the opposition party candidate, Chen Shui-bian, in the polls.

This paradox--voters who preferred Soong or Chen and who knew Lien was in third place nonetheless believing that Lien would win--illustrates a central feature of Taiwanese politics today. Although Taiwanese institutions have been reformed, the day-to-day workings of the political system are not yet fully democratic. Knowing the limitations of their democracy, ordinary Taiwanese had difficulty imagining circumstances under which the ruling KMT could be defeated. Hence the importance of the "imaginative leap" revealed by November's polls.

All three major candidates have impressive educational credentials and extensive experience in politics and government. They also count on the support of strong political organizations. Nonetheless, many observers believe the decisive factors in the election will not be the candidate's qualifications or positions on the issues, but rather the cohesiveness of the KMT's political machine and the chilling shadow cast by the PRC. As the campaign draws to a close, about 30 percent of the voters remain undecided, and the election is too close to call.

Soong: The Independent Breakaway Candidate

For much of the campaign season, James Soong (Sung Chuyu) held the lead. Until last year, Soong was a devoted KMT functionary. Born in mainland China, he holds advanced degrees from the University of California at Berkeley, Catholic University, and Georgetown University. After a brief stint as a university professor, Soong entered the KMT-led government. He served in several posts (including head of the Government Information Office and as...