"The Dread Handwriting is on the Wall": Confronting the New Republican South

ESSAY "The Dread Handwritingis on theWall" Confronting the New Republican South Mac McCorkle "Today theyface each otherin the State, these two, the Republicans andthe Democrats, the Republicansgreasy-mouthed, shining-eyed, the Democratsgaunt, distinctly unhappy . . . the dreadhandwriting is on the wall: North Carolina isgoing Republican." - W.J Cash (1929) he young WJ. Cash penned diese words after Herbert Hoover's conquest of North Carolina, as well as three other southern states, in his 1928 presidential victory over New York's Democratic Governor Al Smith.1 Cash was not the only observer foreseeing a fast-emerging Republicanism in the South. The venerable southern historian Thomas Jefferson Wertenbaker declared that the national Democratic Party must "immediately" repudiate Smith's position favoring the repeal ofProhibition. Otherwise, said Wertenbaker, "the day may not be far distant when this section [the South] will become as solidly Republican as formerly it was Democratic."2 Such predictions belong to what has apdy been called the "durable tradition of clouded prophecy" about the course of twentieth-century southern politics.5 In the very next presidential election, Democrats nominated another anti-Prohibition New York Democratic governor. But Franklin Delano Roosevelt restored the Solid Democratic South—Bible Belt and all—for four straight presidential elections. When Cash's classic The Mind ofthe South appeared in 1941, it made no reference to the emergence of southern Republicanism. Cash instead called the South "a so-called democratic country without an opposition party, a country in which, for practical purposes, there has been but one party from that day [Reconstruction ] to this."4 Cash's turn-about soon proved to be mistaken as well. Seven years after the publication of The Mind ofthe South, the region experienced Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond's successful 1948 rebellion in four Deep South states. Then Republican Dwight Eisenhower's 1952 victory in four upper South states ended the Solid Democratic South. And twenty years later, gop presidential nominee Richard Nixon won every southern state. In light ofthe track record compiled by such a great southern mind as W.J. Cash, caution in predicting the southern political weather might seem to be in order. 28 Certainly the most balanced course is to follow the example ofinvestment bankerJ. P. Morgan. Whenever he wasCaution in publicly asked about the future of the financial market,_,. . ? Morgan used to respond: "It will fluctuate."'-*>v.. . badge of honor for a gop outsider. Yet some very visihome for indepen- ble backsliding usually ensues. For example, four south- ; - j r ern Republican unknowns won U.S. Senate seats in the Reagan Revolution of 1980 and helped secure Republican SOUthem VOterS.control of the chamber for the first time since 1952. In 1986, however, Democrats were able to grab back all four southern seats and regain Senate control.22 More recendy, North Carolina witnessed perhaps the most spectacular display of gop backfire. Seemingly poised to establish dominance after their breakthrough year in the legislative elections of 1994, North Carolina Republicans' prime weapon for penetration in 1996 was to be the secretary of state candidacy of nascar champ and regional folk hero Richard Petty. Yet Petty first exuded disinterest in doing the secretary of state's job. Then, toward the end of the campaign, Petty bumped another car on the highway whose driver he deemed to be going too slow. A wise-cracking Petty even announced to the press that he would have put the other driver in the ditch if it had been a "nascar showdown."23 Petty's Democratic opponent, Elaine Marshall, had originally been considered easy prey due to her loss of a state Senate seat after one term, liberal voting record, and trial lawyer background. But she beat Petty by a 54 percent to 46 percent margin. Rather than leading the gop to victory, Petty proved to be the most prominent example of a whole ticket that was not ready for prime-time exposure. It included a freshman congressman,Jesse Helms's protégé David Funderburk, who lost the rock-solid conservative but formerly Democratic Second District. He sank his reelection chance by recklessly forcing a family van off the road as he raced down a country road.24 Another freshman gop congressman...