The Uneven Development of Manufacturing in the Southeast, 1950-1990

This paper uses a geographic shift-share model to examine the uneven development of manufacturing at the state and local scales in nine southeastern states from 1950 to 1990. The research compares changes in employment between states and among six types of local areas within each state. The types of local areas studied are: central city areas, urban fringe areas, large towns, small towns, rural nonfarm areas, and rural farm areas. The results indicate that: (1) the development of manufacturing in the Southeast was geographically uneven from 1950 to 1990 at both state and local scales, but more so at the local level; (2) development at the local scale shifted from rural nonfarm in the 1950s, to small and large towns in the 1960s, to urban central and fringe areas in the 1970s, and to a wide range of local areas in the 1980s; (3) development became less uneven between states over time for all types of local areas, and by the 1980s the degree of uneven development closely corresponded to the degree of urbanization (ruralization) of the local area, with small towns and rural areas being the most evenly developed and urban central areas being the most unevenly developed; (4) development became less uneven among the six types of local areas within every state over time, with Alabama, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Virginia being the most evenly developed and Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina being the least evenly developed by the 1980s; and (5) labor costs were a significant determinant of the uneven development of manufacturing at the local scale, but the dominance of this factor appears to have subsided in the 1980s.