The Quest for Regional and Domestic Stability

The Region

Introduction

An assessment of political and security developments in Southeast Asia over the last year will reveal three trends that, while not necessarily new, nevertheless highlight the continued challenges faced by both individual Southeast Asian states as well as ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. First, ASEAN faced the challenge of re-establishing regional cohesion, a task that had taken on greater import in the wake of the debacle of 2012 when the inability of members to arrive at a consensus for a joint communiqué at the conclusion of its July foreign ministers’ meeting cast doubt on the organization’s unity. Second, the year also saw a deepening of engagement with major powers. In part a continuation of an ongoing trend of regional diplomacy, there was nevertheless also a clear security underlay to this engagement, stemming from heightened concern over increased Chinese assertiveness in the broader East Asian region. A significant aspect of this trend was the deepening engagement with Japan on the part of several Southeast Asian states. Third, the imperative of domestic stability came to the fore of regional affairs as several Southeast Asian regimes came under pressure for political change both at the ballot box and in the street. Predictably, the preoccupation of several governments on domestic affairs had a negating effect on foreign policy and regionalism.

ASEAN: Sustaining Centrality and Rebuilding Cohesion

The year 2013 saw Brunei assume chairmanship of ASEAN under trying circumstances. Its predecessor, Cambodia, had been in the spotlight for its failure to shepherd the Association to a unified position on matters pertaining to territorial claims in the South China Sea the previous year, leading to a strain on the organization’s motto of “One Vision, One Identity, One Community”. During its time as ASEAN Chair, Cambodia was assessed by many observers to have fallen under the influence of China, a significant investor in Cambodia and one of the claimants to contested waters and territories in the South China Sea. This resulted in the ASEAN Chair stymieing discussions on the South China Sea at various regional fora during the year, including the infamous 9 July 2012 ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Phnom Penh when the Association failed to find consensus for a joint communiqué for the first time in its history. In view of this, it was notable how Brunei, which succeeded Cambodia as ASEAN Chair for 2013, adroitly steered ASEAN away from controversies and obstacles during a host of ministerial meetings and summits. Brunei’s successful chairing of ASEAN was attributable to, first, its experienced and professional diplomatic corps, and second, its decision to focus the Association’s attention and efforts on low-hanging fruits such as human and drug trafficking, disaster mitigation, and environmental issues, where consensus proved considerably easier to attain. At the same time, because the Association was fast approaching its 2015 deadline for the ASEAN Economic Community and also had on its agenda the framework for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), attention was also naturally drawn to the matter of economic integration.¹

A further, potentially consequential, development was the handover of the post of ASEAN Secretary-General from Surin Pitsuwan to Le Luong Minh. By force of both his personality and extensive experience in diplomacy, Surin’s five-year tenure as Secretary-General was widely viewed as a success. Indeed, Surin was credited with orchestrating ASEAN’s support for and involvement in disaster management and rebuilding in Myanmar after Cyclone Nargis; it was also during his tenure that ASEAN member states introduced Human Rights commissions, and the United States acceded to the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation to join the East Asia Summit (EAS). All eyes will be on Le Luong Minh to see if he will be equally proactive on ASEAN matters. Formerly the Deputy Foreign Minister of Vietnam and schooled in linguistics and English literature, Le set as his key objectives the finalization of the ASEAN Economic Community and a consensus with China on a Code of Conduct on the...