Myanmar’s 2010 Elections: Continuity and Change

The Tatmadaw or the Myanmar armed forces has a motto that proudly proclaims its battle cry: “never surrender”. That motto seems to reflect the ruling junta’s (known as the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC) refusal to surrender state power to the National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the 1990 elections,¹ its disinclination to engage in substantive dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the NLD, as well its dismissal of calls for the tripartite dialogue (advocated by the United Nations and democracy lobbies at home and abroad) involving the military, ethnic representatives, and the NLD.

Instead, the Tatmadaw leaders kept to their agenda of first establishing an “enduring” state constitution to their liking and then systematically moving forward to civilian government along the seven-step road map² unveiled in August 2003 by the then Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt. Before the latter was dismissed in October 2004, the National Convention designed to formulate detailed basic principles of a new constitution was reconvened in May 2004 after a suspension of over eight years. The fourth stage of the road map was completed when the resulting draft constitution (completed in February 2008) was adopted, in May 2008, by a majority of 92.5 per cent in a controversial referendum with a reported turnout exceeding 98 per cent.³

The 2010 multiparty general election was the fifth and crucial stage of the road map and may be considered the crowning achievement of the Myanmar military’s managed transition towards a civilian government while at the same time ensuring continued military dominance of the political space and the Myanmar state, which have been under different forms of military control for nearly half a century. Myanmar’s fifth competitive election,⁴ the culmination of the long drawn out series of preparations carried out by the junta in the aftermath of the 1990 election which was interpreted by the military leaders as a preliminary step for constitution making.⁵ The most significant measures undertaken by the ruling junta in preparation for this second multiparty election under its supervision were the formulation of the 2008 Constitution (hereafter referred to as the Constitution) that codified the “leading” role of the military in a multiparty setting and the introduction of a new generation of younger Tatmadaw leaders.⁶

Prelude to the Elections

From Constitution to Polls

When the SPDC announced on 9 February 2008 that a constitutional referendum would be conducted in May and elections would be held in 2010, it elicited positive comments from Myanmar’s neighbouring states and fellow members of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), while the United Nations Secretary-General expressed cautious optimism. However, the regime’s political opponents, many Western states, and the European Union, as well as non-government organizations and groups lobbying for human rights and liberal democracy were sceptical.⁷ There was much speculation over whether the forthcoming election would be inclusive, free, and fair despite repeated assurances by the military leaders.

The Constitution endorsed by the nationwide referendum, despite opposition by the NLD as well as the exiled pro-democracy opposition groups and their allies in the West, allowed the SPDC to determine the agenda of Myanmar’s transition towards civilian government. The Constitution provided the context for holding a general election in accordance with the SPDC’s vision of Myanmar’s political order and the military’s leading role in future governance.⁸ According to the Constitution, the elections would be conducted concurrently for the Pyithu Hluttaw (People’s Assembly or lower house), Amyotha Hluttaw (National Assembly or upper house), and Taing-Daythagyi Hluttaw or Pyinnai Hluttaw (Region or State Assembly or provincial parliament; for each of the seven states and seven regions).⁹

The year 2009 saw the emergence of political groupings aspiring to form political parties to contest the elections, while some of the existing parties adopted a wait-and-see attitude. On the other hand, the NLD and some allied parties, voicing discontent over the Constitution and making an issue out of the incarceration of the so-called political prisoners, hinted...