Southeast Asia in 2009: A Year Fraught with Challenges

Introduction

For Southeast Asia, the past twelve months have proven eventful on several counts. At the positive end of the spectrum, the region managed to weather the economic storm caused by the global credit crunch by minimizing its corrosive effects on local economies and populations, in no small part due to lessons learnt from the economic crisis of a decade ago. Meanwhile, advances were made in regional integration, culminating in the formation of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights, while anxieties over American commitment to Southeast Asia — an issue which seized regional leaders for the most part of the administration of George W. Bush — were soothed somewhat with Washington's signing of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. On the other hand, the past year also witnessed severe strains on several bilateral relationships among Southeast Asian states, the postponement of an ASEAN Summit under dramatic circumstances, and the emergence of new conceptions of regionalism that threaten to displace ASEAN, along with its norms and values, as the core of multilateral initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region. These developments are likely to evolve further in the coming years, with both positive and negative implications for the region.

ASEAN

The monumental signing and ratification of the ASEAN Charter by ASEAN members in 2008 committed the regional organization to two summit meetings a calendar year instead of the previous practice of one summit over a twelve month period (from mid-year to mid-year). However, in order to facilitate the transition to the new schedule with minimal disruption, the appointed ASEAN Chair for the year of 2008 was to hold that position for eighteen months instead of twelve, during which time it would host a total of three summit meetings along with the accompanying ASEAN Plus Three and East Asian Summit gatherings.¹ By way of alphabetical rotation, Thailand succeeded Singapore as the ASEAN Chair in 2008. On the surface, it seemed like a routine transition from one core founder member to another. What transpired during Thailand's tenure, however, was anything but routine.

The September 2006 military coup in Thailand had plunged the kingdom into a deep political crisis from which it has yet to recover. The coup precipitated widespread political protests as supporters and opponents of deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra tussled for primacy in Thai politics as street demonstrations became all too frequent. By September 2008, the animosity between both factions turned decidedly hostile with the outbreak of violence, forcing the Thai government to declare a controversial state of emergency. The Fourteenth ASEAN Summit scheduled for December was subsequently postponed because of attendant security concerns. ASEAN leaders eventually reconvened in the central resort towns of Hua Hin and Cha-am between 27 February and 2 March 2009. During these meetings, further advancements were made toward regional integration. ASEAN leaders signed the Cha-am Hua Hin Declaration on the Roadmap for an ASEAN Community, and also adopted a series of other documents, including the ASEAN Political-Security Community Blueprint, and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint. In addition to that, the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement was signed, creating one of Asia's largest free trade zones. Even though the meetings between ASEAN leaders proceeded without distraction, Thai authorities took the decision to postpone the association's meetings with dialogue partners yet again, rescheduling them for the resort of Pattaya on 10-12 April 2009. In hindsight, this proved to be an ill-fated decision.

As ASEAN and regional leaders gathered in Pattaya, the deepening of Thailand's political malaise saw pro-Thaksin "red-shirt" supporters storm the site of the summit meeting on 10 April, forcing the besieged government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to suffer the ignominy of having to cancel the summit at the eleventh hour and evacuate visiting leaders from ASEAN and its dialogue partners by helicopter to a nearby military airbase. For the Thai government, the entire episode was all the more embarrassing for the fact that Pattaya was initially chosen because it was assumed to be...