The Philippines: In the Eye of the Political Storm

Southeast Asian Affairs 2007 THE PHILIPPINES In the Eye of the Political Storm Frank Cibulka In 2006 the Philippines passed through another year of severe political weather, with forms of instability accompanying attempts, whether by constitutional or unconstitutional means, to remove the embattled President Gloria MacapagalArroyo from office. Meanwhile multiple insurgencies raged within the country. The President's legitimacy has been in question since she secured a six-year term in a controversial presidential election in May 2004. Her popularity remained at record lows since the emergence in early 2005 of some evidence of alleged intent to cheat in order to defeat her opponent, actor Fernando Poe Jr. The country's political stage hosted an appearance of almost all the political strategies characteristic of the weak post-1986 Philippine state: attempts at presidential impeachment and military coup, declaration of state of emergency, political violence, failed constitutional reform, and continuation of the communist and Muslim insurgencies. In many ways, Philippine politics appears to have become frozen in its perpetual state of varying levels of crisis. Political instability is becoming expected and almost institutionalized. The country's division between the supporters of constitutional reform and those who wish to preserve the existing system that mirrors the government of its former American colonial power, indicate an increasing lack of legitimacy of the political system itself. At the same time, the political drama has unfolded against the background of solid gains in the country's economic performance and clear indications that the looming fiscal crisis, which appeared in 2004, has definitely been warded off. In a situation long typical of the archipelago, the satisfying economic figures are seen by many observers as being inconsistent with the failure of the government to alleviate the problems of poverty and social justice. In other words, economic growth has very little trickle-down effect. The strong economic performance was Frank Cibulka is Associate Professor of Social and Behavioral Sciences at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. 258Frank Cibulka secured in spite of nature's fierce assault on the archipelago in the second half of the year. This article will be divided into three main sections analysing the main developments in the areas of domestic politics, economy, and foreign affairs. The Continuing Political Crisis I regard integrity and capacity for self-denial as the prime requisites for the Presidency. — Diosdado MacapagaV Throughout 2006, The Philippine political scene had been characterized by a continuation of political conflicts centring on the disputed legitimacy of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's tenure. As the year progressed, the political conflict lessened in intensity and a certain degree of stabilization of the President's power position was in evidence. But this stabilization could be temporary in the light of deep-seated systemic factors, which have fuelled strife within the political system for much of the period since the demise of the Marcos regime in 1986. One such factor is the legacy of the "People Power revolution" itself. While the events that brought about the ouster of President Ferdinand Marcos in February 1986 and the subsequent renewal of Philippine democracy have served as a source of considerable pride and assumed a status of a self-defining national myth, they have also permanently installed a destabilizing element into the political system. The notion has been firmly ingrained within the collective political mind that extra-constitutional methods of changing political elites are not necessarily seen as undesirable acts. Meanwhile, the acceptable reasons for such changes elude national consensus. It is as if an incurable virus had been introduced into the body of the Philippine politics, which flares up periodically at times of national stress. The semi-constitutional ouster of President Joseph Estrada in 2001 strengthened this trend and increased the readiness of the administration's opponents to resort to impeachment proceeding. Failing at that strategy, they seek to call out the masses into the streets. Prominent columnist Amando Doronila now regards it as "a source of political instability that has undermined the strengthening of political institutions and democratic legal process".2 Other structural factors include the deep-seated military influence in the political system, permitted initially by Marcos's Martial Law policies and encouraged and solidified...