Political Transition in Burma: Four Scenarios in the Run-Up to the 2015 Elections

In less than one year, Burma has gone from an isolated, ruthless military dictatorship to an internationally-fêted, reform-minded government with a veneer of democratic legitimacy. Yet fifty years of military rule, economic mismanagement, and civil war have undermined the foundations of the state and left Burma ill-prepared to manage the complicated transition process. In the next few years, Burma will play host to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), hold national-level elections, integrate itself into the global economy, and usher in new political leadership. This essay will examine four scenarios for Burmese political development in the near- and medium-term. It is a mistake to assume continuity and certainty in the reform process currently unfolding in Burma, especially as it encompasses political, economic and social transitions. Although top-driven and controlled, reforms will inevitably unleash forces outside of the government’s control. Therefore, the challenge for policymakers is to adopt strategies that can accommodate the unexpected and are relevant under multiple scenarios, such as those presented here.