Managing Peace across the Strait: The Impact of United States and Chinese Actions on Contemporary Taiwanese Nationalism, 1995-2005

Using quantitative data to examine the impact of United States and People's Republic of China (PRC) policies on Taiwanese nationalism and desire for independence, this paper catalogues a timeline of 'stages of cross-strait relations' whereby each stage can be identified as having an identifiable U.S. or PRC policy stance toward Taiwan. It finds that PRC military actions directed at coercing Taiwan into submission and explicit U.S. expressions of commitment to defend Taiwan increase the tendency of those in Taiwan to identify themselves as 'Taiwanese' and desire independent statehood. Conversely, shifting U.S. support to the PRC on cross-strait issues, conciliatory PRC-Taiwan exchanges and rhetoric, and stern verbal PRC warnings to Taiwan independence-leaning policies have a stagnating effect on Taiwanese nationalism.