The Kyoto Protocol: A Framework for the Future

In December 11, 1997 some 160 nations concluded in Kyoto, Japan the first ever legally binding commitment to limit emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The Kyoto Protocol is a landmark agreement that calls on industrialized countries to reduce their emissions to at least five percent below 1990 levels over the period 2008 to 2012. While this commitment falls seriously short of what is needed from a scientific point of view, it represents a major political step forward from the original climate change treaty signed more than five years ago at the Rio Earth Summit.

Reactions to the agreement have been mixed. In the United States, on the one hand, business groups, such as the Global Climate Coalition, have characterized the protocol as a “terrible deal. . . [one that] the President should not sign.” The agreed-upon targets are too strict, they argue, and will lead to rising energy prices and economic collapse. On the other hand, some environmentalists have criticized the agreement as an insufficient solution to the problem. More substantial and early reductions, they argue, are economically possible, and necessary in order to avoid the ecological impacts of climate change. This article will argue that neither view is correct. The targets set by the protocol will not cause the dramatic losses predicted by business groups. However, cuts in emissions will not be free, either. The Kyoto Protocol, though not perfect, does provide a workable framework for addressing the challenge of climate change.

Missing the Target

The agreement signed in Kyoto is an amendment to the original climate change treaty, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), negotiated in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit. The talks leading to the UNFCCC attracted widespread international attention to the danger of climate change as a result of human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels. The convention committed signatory governments to the task of preventing dangerous human interference with the climate system. It further specified that countries do so in a manner that not only would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, but also would allow economic development to proceed. ¹

In 1992 there were no specific binding actions required by governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To show their good faith, however, industrialized countries promised to voluntarily limit their emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. By the mid-1980s, it became clear that most of these countries would fall short of that target. Emissions in the U.S., for example, were already more than eight percent above 1990 levels in 1996, and rising steadily. Several European countries were also above the target.

Only three nations could have reached emissions levels below 1990 levels by the year 2000: Germany, Britain, and Russia. Germany would have succeeded thanks to the closing of grossly inefficient and dirty power plants in eastern Germany, inherited from the defunct Communist regime. Britain would also have succeeded because the government removed subsidies to its obsolescent coal industry, thereby making cleaner natural gas more competitive. Russia would have reached the target as a result of the dramatic drop in industrial production following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In no other large economies was there any sign that voluntary measures were enough to force purposeful action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the benefit of the global environment.

In early 1995 in Berlin, the parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change held their first meeting. The agenda for the meeting was to assess progress on the commitment made by industrialized nations in Rio. In light of the evidence that most of these countries would not succeed in achieving their voluntary targets, the 120 governments came up with a new workplan - known as the Berlin Mandate - to be implemented over the next two years. The workplan was to establish legally binding targets and timetables to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These targets and timetables were to apply to the industrialized countries, but not developing ones.

A Discernible Influence

Momentum for a legally binding agreement gathered with a 1996 report by the UN-affiliated body, the...