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THE EVOLVING U.S. POUCY. TOWARD UKRAINE Dave McCurdy With a half-dozen major foreign policy crises clamoring for attention over the past year, U.S. policy toward Ukraine remained stuck on die backburner. Yet few countries are more important to U.S. interests: Ukraine lies at die intersection ofEast and West; it is die gateway dirough which Russian power, if it ever again assumed a hostile face, would be projected at Europe. Ukrainians have felt shunned and ignored by the West and by die United States in particular, and diis perception has fueled Ukraine's dioughts of becoming a nuclear power—a step with disastrous implications for peace in Europe and worldwide nonproliferation. The United States is now finally in die process of developing the revamped Ukraine policy it has needed since late 1991. We need to continue paying more attention to diis critical European state and do more to give Kiev die impression diat its concerns are heard and understood in Washington. Our hands are partly tied by die position ofRussia and die unpopularity widiin die United States offoreign aid and entanglements, but there is still much diat Washington can do. To its credit, die Clinton administration has already made important strides in this direction, capped by die dramatic and promising January 1994 accord on denuclearization. But the lesson for U.S. policy toward Ukraine learned from our recent foreign policy experiences in Somalia and elsewhere is clear. Any sound longterm U.S. relationship widi Ukraine must be built on a foundation of public and congressional support And for such a relationship to work, U.S. efforts must be matched by political and economic reforms in Ukraine. Ifsuch reforms Representative Dave McCurdy (dok) is chairman of a subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee. 153 154 SAIS Review WINTER-SPRING 1994 are carried through, diey will open die door to substantial economic assistance and Ukraine's closer integration into die Western community of nations. A Fragile Experiment in Democracy In a December 1991 referendum, die Ukrainian people voted overwhelmingly for independence. By doing so diey severed dieir bonds to die former USSR and embarked on a risky journey toward self-determination and freedom for die first time in generations. The steward of diis new ship of state is Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk. The former director of ideology for die Ukrainian Communist party, Kravchuk abandoned die party when communism collapsed and later banned it altogedier. He has stalled on economic reforms, even after turning to a manager widi reform credentials, Leonid Kuchma, to guide economic policy as prime minister. Kravchuk is an ardent Ukrainian nationalist, dedicated to die survival of his country, but he has proved himselfa moderate as well. To remain independent, Ukraine must overcome two crippling hurdles. Politically, Ukraine must build, almost from scratch, the institutions of a true democracy. It lacks a professional bureaucracy, a functioning and independent legal system, and an honest and reliable police force. And die current regime is so stocked widi communist holdovers—some 85 percent ofdie 450 legislators elected in 1990 were former communists1—that it will not maintain long-term legitimacy widiout significant change. Such change may be in die offing: elections for a new parliament are now scheduled for March 1994, raising the possibility diat, unlike Russia, Ukraine could conduct the transition to a democratically-elected legislature widiout violence. For die past several years, Ukraine's political situation has been anydiing but stable. Since 1991 , politics in Kiev have been hostage to a diree-way power struggle between Kravchuk, Kuchma, and die parliament President Kravchuk refused to associate himselffully with die tough economic medicine prescribed by Kuchma, and die parliament would not take any firm stand. In May 1993, Kravchuk sought more absolute powers, and Kuchma direatened to resign. His resignation was refused. In early June, Kuchma offered his resignation again— magnanimously (or cunningly) telling parliament to concentrate state power in Kravchuk's hands and allow him to mold die economy. On June 16, ' Serhiy Holowaty, "Ukraine: One Year of Independence," in Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. Response (Queenstown, MD: The Aspen Institute, 1993), 56. THE EVOLVING U.S. POLICY TOWARD UKRAINE 155 Kravchuk assumed control ofdie government...

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