Training Leaders for a Changing World

TRAINING LEADERS FOR A. CHANGING WORLD Paul H. Nitze H.ow should the study and teaching of international relations evolve over the next half decade? What adjustments should SAIS make in its efforts to ensure that it continues to make a vital contribution to the understanding of international affairs and the resolution of global problems ? I believe the answers to these questions lie in the nature and needs of our changing world. The years ahead are likely to be filled with numerous, complex challenges to the global community, problems whose solution will require an extraordinary degree ofcreativity, technical skill, and appreciation for the interrelationship ofnational conditions, as well as the sophisticated leadership necessary to harness these resources in effective ways. I am optimistic that the first three of these attributes will be available to policymakers; the native capability of our students and the training that SAIS has been providing, and should continue to provide, should see to that. But I am concerned that the necessary leadership will be absent. This is whereteachers ofinternational relations ingeneral, and SAIS inparticular, need to do better. We should focus on developing better leaders for the future, especially among the pool ofAmericans, upon whom the responsibility for leadership is likely primarily to fall. Paul H. Nitze is Founder and Diplomat-in-Residence, the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. 2 SAIS REVIEW The Post-Cold War World Three years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and more than a year after the demise ofthe Soviet Union, the nature ofthe post-Cold Warworld has become increasingly evident. A world dominated by one large and relatively stable problem—the superpower confrontation—has been replaced with one featuring many problems oflesser individual import but greater unpredictability. Our hopes for a more peaceful world have been frustrated in Kuwait, Yugoslavia, Somalia, and numerous other places around the globe. Our desire for a better quality oflife has been frustrated by the worldwide recession, by trade conflicts, and by continuing environmental degradation. Many advances have been made in the last few years; conflicts have been settled, weapons have been destroyed, mechanisms for international cooperation have been created or strengthened. But the list of problems still unresolved and the new challenges arising is long and daunting. Political Challenges We must be concerned about the proliferation ofconflicts around the globe and the seemingly ever-expandinglist ofareas where additional conflicts threaten to erupt. For every Serbian and Somali warlord, there appear to be plenty of other troublemakers lurking in the wings, likely encouraged by the international community's evident impotence in the face ofnaked aggression in Bosnia and its hesitancy in responding to anarchy in Somalia. Although these conflicts are smaller in scale than the global holocaust that previously concerned us, they can neverthelessprovequite dangerous, forseveral reasons. First, thearmsproliferation that has accelerated in recent years, and currently shows few signs of abating,hascreatedaworldinwhichevensmallforcesareprosecutingwars ofgreat intensity and destructiveness. Second, many cases ofcontinuing or potential conflict, particularly in the former Soviet Union, involve parties armed with the most destructive of weapons. And third, many areas of dispute are inhabited by ethnic groups for whom a number of external, ethnically related groups feel particular affinity. All ofthis heightens the risk that conflicts could spill over borders, drawing in more combatants in uncontrolled escalation. Thus, even if one turned a blind eye to the horrors being perpetrated in these conflicts because our vital national interests did not appear to be immediately at stake, the risk to U.S. national interests of the potential spillover effects would remain. In addition to the challenges posed by these conflicts, we will also be tested by strains in relations with many of our friends and allies. Such strains are inevitable as nations adjust to the new realities of the postCold War world. In Europe, without the Warsaw Pact threat serving as a glue holding the Atlantic Alliance together, differences that were put aside in favor ofthe greater good ofAllied unity are no longer suppressed. New TRAINING LEADERS FOR A CHANGING WORLD 3 differences will develop as new roles are assumed. Increased European economic and political unity, as well as initiatives to integrate European security efforts further, will pose a...