East-Central Europe in Search of Security

EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE IN SEARCH OF SECURITY Andrew A. Michta T,he collapse of the Berlin Wall and the anticommunist revolutions in Eastern Europe have effectively ended 45 years of confrontation between the Atlantic and Soviet alliances. Whether the nascent new order will last and provide the requisite stability for European security in the 1990s and beyond depends in part on former Soviet satellites making a successful transition from communism, and its reliance on command economies, to democracy, and its espousal of market capitalism. The challenge facing the West today is, thus, how gradually to incorporate the close to 140 million East Europeans into the political and economic structures of an increasingly integrated Europe. Eastern Europe's return to Europe promises to be a slow and uneven process. Now released from direct Soviet control, the East Europeans are faced with staggering economic problems and no experience in the workings ofrepresentative government. Considering the region's years of isolation and its history of volatile nationalism, a necessary precondition for the success of democratic reform is a stable security framework to replace the now defunct Warsaw Pact structures. Arguably, the greatest Andrew A. Michta is an assistant professor of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee, where he specializes in Soviet and East European politics. He holds a Ph.D. in international relations from SAIS. Dr. Michta is the author ofRed Eagle: The Army in Polish Politics, 1944-1988, which was published by Stanford University's Hoover Press in 1990, as well as several articles on Soviet and East European politics. 59 60 SAISREVIEW challenge facing Europe in the 1990s will be the creation of a working collective security system to bridge the gap between East and West. The outcomes of the 1990 elections in Eastern Europe point to a deepening division between the politics of Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary on the one hand, and Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Albania on the other. Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary—in the forefront of change in Eastern Europe—have pushed for a speedy transition to democracy and for political and economic reintegration with the rest ofthe Continent. The Balkan states in contrast, have become increasingly mired in violent nationalism—an outgrowth of the region's authoritarian political tradition. In addition, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary have progressed further than the other former Soviet satellites in their search for a new regional political alignment in East-Central Europe. For these reasons, a successful reintegration of Poland, Czechoslovakia , and Hungary with the rest of the Continent is the necessary first step on the road to a viable collective security system and, consequently , to political and economic cooperation in Europe as a whole. The Impact ofRecent Soviet-German Agreements The 1989 anticommunist revolution in East Germany and the subsequent Soviet-German negotiations have completely recast the issue of East-Central European security. From the moment the conservative Alliance for Germany won the 1990 East German election, it was clear that reunification headed the agendas of both Bonn and East Berlin. In Zheleznovodsk, in July 1990, Bonn and Moscow reached an agreement on the future of Soviet-German relations, as well as on the ground rules for German reunification. West German diplomacy scored a coup by finally bringing about the acquiescence of the Soviet Union in the redrawing of the balance of forces in Central Europe, a prerequisite for German reunification. The Soviets' asking price for conceding a unified Germany's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO), in addition to substantial long-term economic assistance, estimated at $15 billion over three years, was a limitation on German military power. The agreement, concluded between President Mikhail Gorbachev and Chancellor Helmut Kohl, will limit the size of the German army to 350,000, forbid other NATO members to station troops in eastern Germany , and prohibit Germany from acquiring nuclear and chemical weapons. In addition, West Germany has announced that its 1991 defense budget will be reduced by DM2.6 billion ($1.5663 billion) to less than DM50 billion overall, with cuts in military infrastructure and acquisition projects to fol- EAST-CENTRALEUROPE 61 low.1 In return, Germany was given the freedom to remain in NATO after the formal reunification...