Defending Deterrence: Managing the ABM Treaty Regime Into the 21st Century (review)

BOOK REVIEWS 253 Defending Deterrence: Managing the ABM Treaty Regime Into the 21st Century. Edited by Antonia H. Chayes and Paul Doty. Washington, D.C: Pergamon-Brassey, 1989. 271 pp. $32.00/cloth. Reviewed by Frank J. Mirkow, M.P.A. Candidate, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Editor, Harvard Public Policy Review. President Reagan's vision ofa Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI; that would return America to the safety and isolation of bygone days was a call to battle for strategists and policy makers, and set off a flurry of activity and rhetoric in the foreign policy community. Several reasons explain the strong reaction to SDI's threat to the AntiBallistic Missile (ABM) Treaty of 1973. First, some consider the ABM treaty the greatest accomplishment of arms control. At present, there is no START Treaty and few prospects for an agreement soon. SALT II was withdrawn from Senate consideration to avoid almost certain defeat as U.S.-Soviet relations plummeted. The SALT I Interim Agreement is no longer in effect and continues to be labeled "unequal." Many experts regard other treaties, such as the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as ineffective in controlling the quiet spread of nuclear weapons. Under these conditions the arms control community sees the ABM Treaty as the centerpiece achievement that has allowed the strategic balance and deterrence to exist undisturbed. Second, unlike other treaties, discussions about the ABM Treaty encompass a vast array of issues and specializations in law, politics, physics, and military affairs. Here, Defending Deterrence is at its strongest. A collection of essays on the future of the ABM treaty regime by respected experts and policy makers in many fields, Defending Deterrence cogently analyzes the legal, political, scientific, and military prospects for this treaty as the decade and the century come to an end. The authors' primary purpose is to investigate how the ABM Treaty can change and adapt to the shifting political and technological environment of the 21st century. Topics such as ABM research, verification, and non-ABM technologies are explored in depth by experts such as Ashton Carter, Richard Garwin, and Theodore Jarvis, Jr. Particularly interesting is an essay by Antonia and Abram Chayes on the broad legal and political workings of a treaty regime. Their investigation posits that a treaty is not merely the written document, but rather the entire living, evolving, and ongoing relationship between the treaty parties. With this perspective, the ABM Treaty's underlying ideas can adapt to shifts in technology and world power. Finally, Albert Carnesale presents some possible alternative structures within which deterrence and the ABM system can survive into the next century. With these essays, the call to battle has been well answered. As the title suggests, deterrence and its symbol, the ABM system, have been defended. Several broader questions remain unanswered, however. The original Reagan call for SDI was both reflection and manifestation of a deep psychological and cultural revolt against the entire strategy ofdeterrence. This strategy, requiring the once safe and unassailable American republic to live under the constant 254 SAISREVIEW threat of nuclear holocaust, has been under attack for some time. Other strands in strategic thinking, from flexible response to nuclear utilization theory, also aim at distancing the world nuclear Armageddon in one small way or another. In addition, America's extended nuclear deterrence over European allies has been questioned for many years. What the future holds for deterrence theory and policy is a subject that bears much greater research and investigation. Similarly, the future of both SDI and the ABM treaty rests on the broader base of American politics. It may well be that the blows SDI received from the Nunn Report and the "reinterpretation controversy" as well as the exegesis ofthe budget deficit may well have put that Reagan vision to rest. Neither of these broader themes are sufficiently treated in Defending Deterrence, though they may simply be beyond the editors' aims in this work. The necessary grounding in basic legal and technical issues of the ABM treaty to pursue these broader questions are thoroughly and intelligently presented in Defending Deterrence. Any specialist, policy maker, or informed general reader considering this issue must have a grasp of the basic...