Populist Islam and U.S. Foreign Policy

POPULIST ISLAM AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY James A. Bill W„ 'ith their societies convulsed by the forces of social and political change, Middle Eastern political leaders constantly seek recipes and models that will better enable them to meet the challenges of the day. This challenge of change cuts across the entire region, where no society is immune. The intensity of the challenge is matched by its complexity, as changes affect all systems by which Middle Eastern men and women organize their lives. The signs of change are most vividly seen in the gaps, imbalances, and divisions that deepen daily: gaps between rich and poor, urban and rural life, modern and traditional practices; imbalances between power holders and power seekers; divisions among ethnic groups, religious groups, and nation-states. In brief, the Middle East is today witnessing the collapse of traditional human relationships and social structures ; at the same time new systems remain to be born. In this current state of incoherence many Middle Easterners look forward to a promising if unknown future; others choose to look backward, to a more familiar past, to their roots. In looking to their roots, increasing numbers of Middle Eastern citizens have joined the ranks of a powerful Populist Islamic movement that stresses political equality, social justice, and national and regional autonomy. This ideology, growing from the grass roots of Muslim societies, confronts its own conservative religious establishments. Externally, Populist Islam challenges the Soviet Union, the United States, and the state of Israel. This article will argue that in today's turbulent Third World it is extremely James A. Bill is professor of government and director of the Wendy and Emery Reves Center for International Studies at the College of William and Mary. He is the author of The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy ofAmerican-Iranian Relations. 125 126 SAIS REVIEW important for the United States to develop an understanding of, and a working relationship with, Populist Islam. This gathering religious movement draws nourishment from a world in which the forces of modernization accelerate while the processes of political development languish. At one level, the major accelerating force for change can be termed "modernization," the process by which individuals increasingly gain control over their physical environments. Modernization usually refers to a complex of processes involving industrialization, urbanization, economic growth, and technological advances. Fueled and financed by resources made available by petroleum and natural gas exploitation, the modernization process has cut an uneven, jagged path across the region, leaving in its wake rising expectations, new disappointments, and heightened tensions . The contradictory results of this uneven process are dramatically evident: tents and skyscrapers, donkey paths and airports, veils and miniskirts, mosques and discotheques, teahouses and skating rinks, illiteracy and computers. Modernization is a disruptive process in which expectations race out beyond their possible satisfaction and in which individuals witness increasing insecurity as they seek the dazzling new and begin to lose touch with the familiar old. Necessity and choice suddenly become fused as external pressures begin to affect thinking and behavior. The scope and direction of the modernization process is determined primarily by the political system. Middle Eastern political leaders are those who make the key decisions that shape and guide modernization programs. But while politics influence modernization, modernization in turn affects political capacity. The processes are intertwined and reciprocal . Since it is in the political system where key society-wide decisions are made, it is essential to define briefly political development. For the purposes of this article, political development can be described as a process whereby national elites come to possess the will and capacity to satisfy the increasing demands of their populations. Among the most important of the demands are those that involve equality of opportunity, political participation, and social justice. The path is a narrow one and the process a delicate balancing of liberty against authority. Western "democratic" systems may fail miserably in societies of great scarcity, communal division, and immoderate demands, as in the case of Lebanon. However, tough authoritarian models that provide limited popular participation are also politically fragile. Witness the string of fallen absolute monarchies across the region. A key feature of political development involves the distribution of goods...