Long Cycles in World Politics (review)

BOOK REVIEWS Thomas Mahnken, editor Brenner, P., From Confrontation to Negotiation: U.S. Relations with Cuba ................................ 231 Farer, TJ. , The Grand Strategy of the United States in Latin America .......................................... 235 Findling, J.E., Close Neighbors, Distant Friends: United States-Central American Relations .................. 234 Friedman, N., The U.S. Maritime Strategy ................... 229 Gordon, J.S., ed., Psychological Operations: The Soviet Challenge .................................... 243 Gutman, R., Banana Diplomacy: The Making of American Policy in Nicaragua 1981-1987 ................... 238 Hough, J., Russia and the West: Gorbachev and the Politics of Reform ...................... 241 Modelski, G., Long Cycles in World Politics .................. 228 Mower, A.G. Jr., Human Rights and American Foreign Policy: The Carter and Reagan Experiences ....................... 244 Pastor, R.A., Condemned to Repetition: The United States and Nicaragua ......................... 237 Smyser, W.R., Refugees' Extended Exile ..................... 232 Tugendhat, C, Making Sense of Europe ..................... 239 227 228 SAIS REVIEW Long Cycles in World Politics. By George Modelski. Seattle, Wash.: University of Washington Press, 1987. 244 pp. $30.00/hardcover. Reviewed by Matthew A. Baum, M.A. candidate, SAIS. The imminent decline of the United States' "empire" has been a popular subject of debate among academics and politicians since the end of the Vietnam War. Recently, the issue of decline has resurfaced in the form of several books purporting to explain the reasons for, and process of, the rise and decline of empires. The latest of these attempted explanations is George Modelski's Long Cycles in World Politics, in which the author traces the evolution of five "world powers" in the hopes of isolating the factors that may lead to the apparent repetition of rise and decline of world powers. Modelski identifies the five world powers as: Portugal (1494-1580), The Netherlands (1580-1688), Great Britain I (1688-1792), Great Britain II (17921914 ), and the United States (1914- ). Great Britain is subdivided into two empires based on Modelski's criteria for world power (long) cycles, which begin and end with a major global war that serves to tear down the old system and replace it with a new nation as the dominant power. Great Britain's first empire is seen as having ended in the period of the Napoleonic Wars. Modelski has identified four phases in each long cycle: the global war phase, signifying the end of the previous cycle and onset of the next; the world power phase, which represents the height of an empire's relative strength; the delegitimation phase, which follows logically from the former, and involves entering a "comfort zone" wherein security concerns are sublimated to the enjoyment of abundant material prosperity; and the déconcentration phase, in which power, both economic and military, begins to diffuse to newly emerging challenger nations. By Modelski's measure, the United States is currently late in the delegitimation phase and is rapidly approaching the final phase of déconcentration. According to Modelski's logic, the next global war is looming on the horizon. Recognizing the difficulty in asserting that the long cycle is some sort of unconscious physical force, which can in no way be affected, Modelski argues that the next global war might be prevented if new forms of transferring power from the current world power to the emerging power can be found. This is possible, Modelski argues, because the long cycle involves a learning process, whereby emerging powers emulate former powers to achieve world power status in the most economical manner possible. However, upon recognition of the futility of thermonuclear war, the powers-that-be might innovate a more rational transfer of power (loosely along the lines of Britain's peaceful acceptance of U.S. predominance after World War I). The task of first defining and then explaining the long cycle is accomplished by illustrating a logical progression. Modelski initially presents his evidence for the existence ofsuch long cycles and then discusses both the nature and ramifications of long cycles. In most cases the thorough presentation of evidence in support of Modelski's theory makes for a fairly convincing argument. BOOK REVIEWS 229 However, in his attempt to avoid the quagmire of reducing world politics to unconscious physical forces, Modelski, at times,offers evidence that appears to contradict his assertions. Thus, after offering a convincing...