The German Social Democrats and Defense after the 1987 Elections

THE GERMAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS AND DEFENSE AFTER THE 1987 ELECTIONS Stephen E Szabo Termans and foreigners alike viewed the national elections of 1987 as an uninteresting event without surprises. Everyone expected the Christian-Liberal coalition to continue in power under the chancellorship of Helmut Kohl with the implication of continuity in West German foreign and defense policies. The results confirmed that the most proAmerican and pro-Western government in the Federal Republic's history would remain in power into the 1990s.1 This represented a dramatic turnaround from the concern about German neutralism so evident throughout Western capitals before the 1983 Bundestag elections. Yet this rather unremarkable election may be referred to in the future as a watershed event in West German politics. The reason lies in the most significant result of the 25January polling, the fragmentation of the Left. The poor showing of the Social Democrats (SPD) under the moderate leadership ofJohannes Rau combined with the increase of the vote for the Greens means that the SPD will continue to have serious competition on its Left for the first time since the founding of the Federal Republic. The Green factor in German politics appears to be one that will continue for the foreseeable future. 1. The results of the 1987 election were: Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) 44.3 percent (-4.5 percent compared to 1983); Social Democratic party (SPD) 37.0 percent (-1.2 percent); Free Democratic party (FDP) 9.1 percent ( + 2.1 percent); Greens 8.3 percent ( + 2.6 percent). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 27 January 1987, 1. Stephen F. Szabo is professorial lecturer in European studies at The School of Advanced International Studies and a member of the faculty of the National War College. He is editor of The Successor Generation: International Perspectives ofPostwar Europeans (London: Butterworth, 1983) and author of numerous articles on European and German politics. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Department of Defense or the U.S. government. 51 52 SAIS REVIEW The election also marked the passing of a political generation of leaders. Helmut Schmidt retired from the Bundestag and active politics, and Willy Brandt stepped down from the chairmanship of the SPD in March 1987. On the conservative side Franz Josef Strauss, while still a political force, faces a diminishing future in Bonn following the strong showing of the Free Democrats (FDP) in the election. The exits of these three very different politicians mark a generational changing of the guard in German politics with important, if uncertain, implications for the future of German security policy. Within the Left this generational change appears with dramatic clarity . The appointment of Hans-Jochen Vogel as Brandt's successor is an interim step that only delays the generational change of leadership. The defeat of the moderate Rau combined with his decision not to be a candidate for the party chairmanship opens the door for the enfant terrible of the SPD's Left, Oskar LaFontaine (currently the governor of the state of the Saar and the newly named party vice chairman). LaFontaine remains the most likely person to lead the party into the next national election. The party, after marching from the Left to the center on defense in the late 1950s, appears determined to march back again to the Left. Why? And with what consequences for the future of German security policy? From Cologne to Nuremberg The erosion of the West German security consensus began during the debate over NATO's 1979 decision to deploy Pershing and cruise missiles (INF or intermediate-range nuclear forces) failing an armscontrol agreement. At the December 1979 party congress in West Berlin then-chancellor Schmidt already faced substantial opposition and stressed the arms-control track of the decision. The opposition to INF within the SPD escalated rapidly during the early 1980s, especially following the fall of the Schmidt government in September 1982. The key symbolic event was the special party convention of November 1982, held in Cologne, at which the policies of the former chancellor were almost unanimously repudiated. The evolution of the party's security policy in the 1980s was documented in a series of papers and resolutions...