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FRANCE IN SUSPENSE Michael M. Harrison»JiNCE it was founded in 1958 the French Fifth Republic has undergone a series of adjustments that have confirmed the regime's ability to withstand political adversity as well as dramatic change. Confronted with the revolt of a political majority comfortable with the anarchy of the Fourth Republic, in 1962 president Charles de Gaulle instituted the direct election of the president by universal suffrage and called elections that installed a working Gaullist majority in the National Assembly. When de Gaulle left office in 1969 after losing a referendum, Georges Pompidou and the Gaullist party were able to execute a transition from a system based on the charisma of a national hero to a republican system with a president at its center. When Pompidou died in 1974 and centrist Valéry Giscard d'Estaing won the presidency, Fifth Republic institutions proved resilient enough for a non-Gaullist chief of state to govern with the support of centrist forces allied with the often resentful heirs of de Gaulle. The most outstanding test ofthe Fifth Republic constitutional regime occurred in May 1981, when the Socialist François Mitterrand unexpectedly won the presidency. He promptly dissolved the National Assembly and held new elections, securing an absolute majority for the Socialist Michael M. Harrison is associate professor of European Studies at The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is the author of The Reluctant Ally: France and Atlantic Security (1981) and coauthor ofItaly: A Country Study (1986) as well as numerous articles on European and Atlantic affairs. SAIS student Deborah Wetzel provided research assistance for this article and prepared the tables. 91 92 SAIS REVIEW Party (Parti Socialiste, ps), which has allowed the Left to rule for the five-year term of the Assembly. France's transition after twenty-three years of Center-Right government to the reign of a left-wing Socialist Party aligned with the Communists (Parti Communiste Français, pcf) tested the flexibility of the institutions designed by de Gaulle. The successful transition confirmed that all of France's major political forces accept the framework of the Fifth Republic and can pursue their aims within it. Both before and since 1981 French institutions have functioned smoothly, because the president and the National Assembly have represented the same Center-Right or Left majority. This ensures that the prime minister, the cabinet, and a compliant parliament follow the general policies set by a dominant president. The National Assembly elections on 16 March 1986 threaten this political coherence and symmetry . A president elected by the Left will confront a Chamber of Deputies where Center-Right forces seem likely to prevail and may have an absolute majority. Because Mitterrand's term of office runs until the spring of 1988, this unprecedented situation creates the possibility of a dramatic political struggle pitting president against parliament. It may lead to a premature resignation of the president, a dissolution of the new National Assembly, or months (possibly two years) of political and legal wrangling between the head of state and a cabinet backed by the Chamber of Deputies. The 1986 elections, therefore, represent more than a normal political struggle between forces of the Left and Right. The viability of the constitution, the nation's internal stability, and its reliability as an ally and partner within the West are at stake. The political situation in the months preceding the March 1986 election is an unusually complex and ambiguous one, even for a country with a history ofagitated politics such as France. The political parties and leading personalities are engaged in extraordinarily complicated maneuvers involving three distinct but interdependent agendas. The March election for the National Assembly is the only fixed point in everyone's calculations. Furthermore, it is the event with the most predictable outcome: a defeat for the Left and a majority of undetermined size for the Center-Right. A second set ofcalculations focuses on the postelection period, when President Mitterrand will face the choice between selecting a socialist or "nonpartisan" prime minister to form a government based on some kind of majority bridging the gulf between the Center and the Left, and accepting the most palatable figure from Giscard's...

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