The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal (review)

196 Reviews any of the decisive greatness of Surprised by Sin (1967), Fish nevertheless demonstrates that he is still one of Milton's most spirited and original readers. Benjamin Myers School ofHumanities James Cook University Franklin, James, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability befor Pascal, Baltimore, The John Hopkins University Press, 2001; cloth; pp. xiii, 497; R R P US$55.00; ISBN 0801865697. One rarely comes across a book which offers up such delights on every page which is not only lucidly written but employs a wry sense of humour, which shows a magisterial grasp of a sweep of history and culture from early Egypt to the early m o d e m period and which, as far as this medievalist is concerned, shows the rationality and subtlety of thought current in a period which is still aberrantly referred to as the Dark Ages. James Franklin is a senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of N e w South Wales, and the rather forbidding title of the book indicates a subject area which should be of interest to only a few. D o not be put off: this is a book which belongs in every library, and should be read by any one with any interest in the very many periods discussed. Franklin deals not only with the mathematical and scientific use of probability, but with the important discussions about doubt, scepticism, rationality, and probable reasons in ancient and medieval societies. His vast breadth of learning encompasses mathematics and law and the development of ideas. Thus, the book is invaluable to historians of philosophy as well as law, and to literary scholars and historians generally. This volume will stand as a necessary corrective to simplistic attributions of the Middle Ages, for instance, as a period of epistemological fracture or irrationality. Actually, most people manage to come to terms with what is reasonable, probable and more probable. As Franklin ably shows, there is a broad range of choice between absolute knowledge and complete scepticism. Primary sources are quoted extensively, and the comprehensive bibliography and notes will be trawled by many to further their research. While never losing control of the vast array of material assembled, Franklin gives sufficient space to the voices of older writers, many famous, but many known only to specialists in various fields. Consequently, the reader has Reviews 197 the excitement of finding new perspectives and new voices over the centuries. A summary ofthe contents reveals the depth ofmaterial covered. Franklin opens with a review of what was considered proof by the Egyptians and Mesopotamians, the Jews, the Romans and, an indication of the incredible breadth of perspective, the Indians. The exposition moves on to the early European law courts and up to the Inquisition. Another brief discussion of law in the east provides further context. Renaissance Law, the witch trials and concepts of the reasonable m a n are dealt with in Chapter Three. Chapter Four explores the doubting conscience and moral certainty, including discussions ofGrotius, Hobbes, English casuistry, Juan Caramuel Lobkowitz and Pascal. Chapter Five, on 'Rhetoric, Logic and Theory', deals with probability, persuasion and rationality from the Greeks to late Scholastic logic. Chapter Six is concerned with hard science from Aristotle to Galileo; Chapter Seven then turns to soft science and history, and a diverting discussion ofdivination, astrology, experimentation and the authenticity ofdocuments and histories. Chapter Eight, 'Philosophy, Action and Induction', covers Carneade's mitigated scepticism, Epicureans and such stalwarts as Scotus, Ockham and Nicholas of Autrecourt, through to Bacon, Descartes, the Jesuits and Pascal. Chapter Nine, 'Religion: Laws ofGod, Laws ofNature', explores the arguments from design, revelation and the reasonableness of Christianity and, of course, Pascal's wager. Chapter Ten, 'Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities and Bets', provides a striking example of the imaginative range of this book, and brings unexpected rewards to the student of scepticism by showing h o w people dealt with uncertainty in the real-life conditions of business and law. Chapter Eleven moves to what one would expect from the book's title: a discussion of dice. Yet, here again, the chapter exceeds expectations by its fascinating sweep from games ofchance in antiquity to ideas of probability...