Soviet Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s

This article examines the possible directions of Soviet policy toward North and South Korea in the 1990s. That policy is seen to depend primarily on two factors: the continued expansion of perestroika and changes or lack of change on the Korean peninsula. Soviet policy toward North Korea in the near future will be based on the assumption that economic or political reform there, if any, will be slow to come. The South Korean model used by Soviet policy makers predicts continuing democratization and the need to undergo technological restructuring. Little prospect is seen for unification, and Soviet policy assumes the existence of two Koreas for the near future. Soviet-North Korean relations in the 1990s will seek new bases, structured around more effective economic assistance. The author foresees the establishing of Soviet-South Korean diplomatic relations and policy independent of Soviet-North Korean and Soviet-U.S. relations. The 1990s is seen to be a decade when the new political thinking in the USSR leads to a pragmatic overhaul of both Soviet-North Korean and Soviet-South Korean relations.