The Dynamics of Policy Change: A Longitudinal Analysis of Emergency Management in Ontario, 1950–2010

Although cross-sectional studies offer valuable insights about the determinants of specific policy choices, it is now widely accepted that a richer understanding of policy cycles in any particular domain demands analysis of a decade or more.¹ Scholars have increasingly turned their attention to historical patterns of policy development, seeking to explain the dynamics of policy stability and change over time.² The predominant depiction of policy development that emerges from this literature is a stepped, evolutionary pattern characterized by relatively long periods of policy stability, punctuated by moments of significant change.³ However, recent studies suggest that the historical pattern of policy change may vary depending on the characteristics of the policy domain under examination and the nature of the policy subsystem that surrounds it.⁴

This article focuses on a specific policy domain—emergency management policy—which is defined here as a course of action chosen by public authorities to address unforeseen, urgent situations that pose a serious risk to life, health, or property, and that exceed the normal coping capacity of organizations and governments. Historical analyses of emergency management in the United States generally tell a story of “disaster-driven evolutionary changes,”⁵ whereby periods of relative policy stability are disrupted by major emergencies, which prompt governments to adopt a new course of action. These accounts portray a cyclical, contingent pattern of policy development, involving repeated attempts to address the “emergency problem” in the aftermath of sporadic disasters. Whereas emergency management is normally the province of technical experts working with little attention from elected officials and the general public, major emergencies subject policies to critical scrutiny, giving rise to a brief flurry of policy redesign, which is normally focused on the most recent event.⁶ Occasionally new policies supplant previous ones, but in most cases they are “layered” on top of one another, gradually increasing the scope and complexity of emergency management.

With the above model as its point of departure, this article traces the history of emergency management policy in the province of Ontario. Before 1950, Ontario had virtually no formal procedures, at either the provincial or local level, to cope with emergencies. Sixty years later, there are detailed provincial response plans and every municipality is required to implement a comprehensive program to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from emergencies. What factors contributed to this seemingly dramatic policy transformation? In what ways have the goals and instruments of emergency management policy changed throughout this period? The article evaluates variation in policy scope and content over six decades, and examines the conditions that gave rise to policy change throughout this period.

The longitudinal analysis confirms the broad contours of the pattern noted above: current policy is the result of a long, evolutionary process involving many rounds of policy development, and emergencies were the primary impetus for most of the policy cycles. However, by applying insights from existing studies of event-driven policy change, and by disaggregating policy content into multiple components, the analysis uncovers a more complex and nuanced picture of policy development. In addition to domestic emergencies that focused critical attention on emergency management, there is also evidence of other change-inducing mechanisms, including circumstances in the broader political environment that disrupted otherwise stable policy routines, emergencies in other jurisdictions that impelled policymakers to consider potential, future harms, and ideas circulating in the international community, which were incorporated into domestic practice. Furthermore, it finds that although emergency management policy has evolved in a fragmented, piecemeal pattern, over time successive cycles of policy redesign have resulted in a robust framework for dealing with emergencies.

Students of American disaster policy will note similarities between the history of emergency management in the United States and that of Ontario, particularly since many major emergencies mobilized policy communities on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border. Perhaps the most notable difference is the influence of the federal government. Whereas American historical accounts attribute much of the national and subnational policy development in this field to the leadership of the federal government, and to...