Modernizing China's Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects (review)

David Shambaugh aims in this volume to provide a comprehensive study of China's military, a goal he has achieved admirably.

In eight densely written, well-crafted chapters, Shambaugh provides the most accurate, complete one-volume description of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the Chinese Defense Industrial Complex (CDIC), and Beijing's national defense views written to date. Of note are the author's sources: the full range of secondary literature, wide-ranging use of original documents in Chinese, and extensive interviews with Chinese military and civilian analysts and policy-makers. Shambaugh also points out that the PLA is difficult to study because China is not a transparent polity: much information openly available in other nations is classified in China as "state secrets."

In his first chapter, Shambaugh provides extensive information on China's defense structure; in Chapter 2, he assesses civil-military relations, noting that while "no radical restructuring of party-army relations" has occurred in China, there is increasing differentiation between civil and military institutions.

The next chapter deals with PLA training, doctrine, strategy, and tactics. The author perceptively notes that the events of the first Gulf War, Kosovo, and Afghanistan have brought home to China's military leaders PLA shortcomings. Significant advances are taking place, but "there remains a large gap between" PLA aspirations and "actual capabilities."

The author in Chapter 4 discusses the facets of command and control in China, noting the continuing influence of the Soviet model, and PLA loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party rather than to "China." Two other points are the PLA's continuing concern with political reliability as well as with professional competence, and continuing organizational reform.

Chapter 5 deals with the military budget process, perhaps the least-well understood facet of China's national defense effort. One difficulty in gaining a better understanding of this crucial subject is its changing nature, as reforms continue and threat perceptions evolve. As widely reported, the PLA has enjoyed double-digit budget increases during the past several years, but the resulting moderate military buildup indicates that this money is being spent either largely on personnel and other "soft" categories, or at such a basic level—fundamental research and development, for instance—that the results of the increases are not yet apparent to the outside observer.

In Chapter 6, the author analyzes the CDIC and catalogues current PLA weaponry. He observes that the CDIC is probably more in need of modernization than any other defense sector in China, a statement borne out by continuing reliance on foreign sources for almost all categories of modern weaponry. The primary exception to this weak military-industrial base, as Shambaugh notes, is China's development of very capable ballistic missiles.

The author's assessment of China's national security environment in Chapter 7 begins by correctly noting that the nation "faces no tangible or immediate external military threat." Nonetheless, China's national security professionals widely view the United States as an active national security threat.

Shambaugh offers his conclusions in Chapter 8, relating his earlier analyses to U.S. interests and offering policy recommendations. He observes soberly that Beijing's military goals are "legitimate" for a nation of China's stature, but emphasizes the danger of Beijing's use of ballistic missiles to threaten Taiwan and others. The author urges expanded visits and discussions between Chinese and U.S. militaries as a medium for learning more about the relatively opaque PLA.

David Shambaugh has done U.S. scholarly, military, and policy-making communities a great service. His book is well-written and readable; is based on thorough, careful research; and offers judicious, conservative conclusions and recommendations.