Getting to Arab Democracy

Since its founding in 1990, the Journal of Democracy has devoted a great deal of coverage to the fortunes of democracy in the Middle East. For the most part, the story has not been a happy one. As we noted in October 2002 in introducing an earlier set of essays, "One of the most striking features of the Third Wave of democratization has been its failure to touch the Arab world." More than any similar regional grouping, the Arab countries remain resistant to democratization, and it would be rash to underestimate the serious obstacles to genuine political reform there. Nonetheless, the prospect of Arab democracies today seems much less remote that it did a few short years ago.

One sign of this may be found in the newest Freedom House survey, summarized later in this issue (pp. 119–24) by Aili Piano and Arch Puddington, which notes that in 2005 the Middle East registered "the most significant one-year improvements" in freedom scores since the survey began in 1972. Leading this progress was Lebanon, where mass protests reminiscent of—and partly inspired by—Ukraine's Orange Revolution led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops and the country's freest elections in decades. Oussama Safa recounts the stirring tale of Lebanon's Cedar Revolution, but also emphasizes that it "remains half-finished," and that many hurdles still must be surmounted on the path to democracy.

Iraq, of course, is also attempting to construct a democratic regime, an effort culminating in elections for its new parliament on 15 December 2005. Yet as Mark Tessler, Mansoor Moaddel, and Ronald Inglehart point out, the sustainability of democracy in Iraq will depend on its citizens' views. Drawing on opinion surveys, they show that Iraqis share with most other Arab publics a strong desire for democracy, but also that Iraqis are deeply split about the political role of religion, and that the views of Shi'ites, Arab Sunnis, and Kurds vary in significant ways.

The two concluding essays in this cluster deal more generally with Arab paths to democratization. Barry Rubin focuses on communalism (ethnic, linguistic, and religious), which he contends is significant not only in Lebanon and Iraq but in many other Arab countries as well. Communal differences, he argues, will surely complicate the building of Arab democracy, but may also provide a basis for political pluralism.

Steven A. Cook examines the prospects for achieving democratic transitions through "pacts"—agreements between government and opposition that seek to draw rulers into real reform by guaranteeing them a gradual, peaceful, and honorable exit from power. Both Rubin's and Cook's analyses are open to objections, but we believe that these two essays can help stimulate fresh thinking about how to get to Arab democracy.