Reform and Stability in South Africa

Reform and Stability i n South Africa T h e Huntington Samue2P. Stability of Multi-Ethnic Political Systems Multi-ethnic or multi-racial systems1 can be classified as vertical or hierarchical , on the one hand, and horizontal or parallel, on the other. In a vertical or hierarchical system, ”stratification is synonymous with ethnicity”; in a horizontal or parallel system, different ethnic communities coexist side by side, each with its own stratification system independent of the other.2Multiethnic societies often combine elements of both hierarchy and parallelism and over time, one type of system may change into another. Most systems generally tend, however, toward one ideal type or the other. In the contemporary world, parallel systems have been more prevalent than hierarchical ones, with Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Cyprus, Guyana, Lebanon, and Nigeria some of the more notable instances of modernizing parallel multi-ethnic societies. Such societies often have sustained high levels of conflict among ethnic groups and yet also are often able to survive and moderate such conflict through political accommodation and the use of a variety of institutional devices often associated with the term ”consociational democracy.” This paper was delivered as the key-note address at the Biennial Conference of the Political Science Association of South Africa at Rand Afrikaans University, Johannesburg, September 17, 1981. Samuel P. Huntington is the Clarence Dillon Professor ofhternational Affairs and Director of the Center for Znternational Affairs, Haruard Uniuersity. His most recent work is entitled American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony (Cambridge, MA: Haruard University Press, 2982). ~ ~~~ 1. “Ethnicity” can refer to linguistic, nationality, and even religious differences, as well as racial ones. This paper will deal primarily with the relations among the four principal racial groups in South Africa. Ethnicity in the broader sense would also encompass the roles of Afrikaans and English speaking groups, as well as those of the Zulu, Xhosa, Sotho, Tswana, and other black tribal groups. 2. Donald L. Horowitz, “Three Dimensions of Ethnic Politics,” World Politics, Vol. 23 (January 1971),p. 232; Samuel P. Huntington and Jorge I. Dominguez, ”Political Development,” in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds., Handbook of Political Science (Reading, Mass.: AddisonWesley , 1975),Vol. 3, pp. 67ff. ~~~ International Security, Spring 1982 (Vol. 6, No. 4) 0162-2889/82/040003-23 $02.50/0 @ 1982 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 3 International Security 1 4 Vertical or hierarchical systems tend to be both more polarized and more integrated than the parallel systems. The two or more ethnic groups are more conscious of themselves as components of a single society, and increased mutual dependence breeds increased mutual hostility. Disengagement, or the creation of a separate state for each ethnic group, is often extremely difficult in parallel systems; it is usually impossible, except at extraordinary social cost, in hierarchical systems. Yet the sustainability of hierarchical systems , at least in the twentieth century, is much more problematic than that of parallel systems, and this is particularly true when political power is concentrated in the leaders of an ethnic minority. The key characteristic of such systems is that ”a racially and culturally distinct minority . . . effectively controlled all privileges, and . . . exploited . . . a racially distinct majority whom they regarded as inherently inferi~r.”~ These words, written to describe Rwanda and Zanzibar, also describe the situations that have existed in Liberia, Rhodesia, Burundi, Guatemala, South Africa, and perhaps a few other countries. As this list indicates, the rate of survival of such regimes is low and the costs of survival are high. The ethnic minority hierarchical regimes in Rwanda, Zanzibar, Liberia, and Rhodesia have all been displaced, in some cases with considerable violence. In Burundi, the Tutsis kept a hold on power through a policy of “veritable genocide,” in the words of the Belgian premier, decimating those Hutus of education or abilityS4 In Guatemala , a sustained guerrilla effort is gradually building up strength among the Indians against the Spanish-speaking elite. The record would seem to support Horowitz’s conclusion that “on a global scale, vertical ethnic differentiation seems clearly on the decline. . . .“ As a result of the spread of egalitarian norms, the diffusion of education, and the processes of social...