Patriot Experience in the Gulf War

Correspondence Patriot Experience in the Gulf War T othe editors: Robert M . Stein TheodoreA. Postol Operation Desert Storm began shortly before 3:OO on the morning of January 17, 1991 with the attack of Iraqi radar sites by U.S.Army Apache helicopters and the destruction of an air defense control center by an F-117A Stealth fighter. Coalitionair strikes continued on a non-stop basis until the ceasefire 43 days later. Iraq was unable to mount an effectiveair defense and the coalitionpounded vital Iraqi positions at will. Saddam Hussein’s ability to counterattack with aircraft or ground forces was totally shut down. But Saddam Hussein thought he had a weapon against which no defense could be mounted. In his mind, it would be so devastating in its ability to inflict damage, impose casualties, and create mass hysteria that the coalition would break apart and the allied governments would sue for peace, on his terms. This, however, was not to be the case. On January 18, within 24 hours of the coalition’s initial air strikes, Iraqi-modified Scud tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs) were launched into civilian areas in Saudi Arabia, where forces of the United States Army had been deployed with their Patriot Air Defense Systems since the previous August.’ On that night, Patriot achieved the first-ever wartime engagement of a ballistic missile in history, and it was successful. During the course of Desert Storm, the world witnessed the Patriot-Scud duels night after night on television. Patriot’s very credible performance and success can be measured by the events as they occurred. The coalition did not falter. Israel did not have to mount offensive actions against Iraq, and was able to stay out of the war. Robert M . Stein is the Manager of Advanced Air Defense Programs for the Raytheon Company. His involvement with Patriot spans nearly two decades. I would like to acknowledgethe skill and ingenuity demonstratedby the US.Army and Israeli soldiers, who dealt with a mission and a threat for which there were no prior lessons or experience. I would also like to acknowledge the courage of the atizens of Israel and Saudi Arabia, who demonstrated great bravery in facing Saddam Hussein’s life-threatening TBMs night after night. To them, the issue of ATBM defense was indeed far more than an academic debate. 1. Scud attacks were also made into Israel on January18, but Patriots were not deployed and operational there until four days later, on January22. Znternutional Security, Summer 1992 (Vol. 17, No. 1) 8 1992 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and of the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology. 199 International Security 17:l I200 Widespread loss of civilian life was not inflicted. The one or two civilian deaths directly related to TBMs in Israel*and no civilian deaths in Saudi Arabia3contrasted sharply with the effects of Scuds against other countries without anti-TBM (ATBM) defense, such as in the "War of the Cities" between Iraq and Iran, in which TBMs killed or injured more than 5000 Iranian civilian^,^ and in Afghanistan when three Scuds killed 300 people on a single day.5And in the end, it was Saddam who sued for peace, not the coalition. Some may argue that the situations in Iradraq and Afghanistan cannot be compared to those in Saudi Arabia and Israel because of differences in urban densities, degree of preparation, evacuation procedures, and the like. A detailed numerical comparisonwould indeed be inappropriate. Nevertheless, the casualty rates per TBM in Israel and Saudi Arabia differed from those in the comparisonexamples by orders of magnitude. Such differences transcend the possible variations in circumstances, particularly since mass evacuation did not take place in Israel, and after the first week of TBM attacks, civilian activity returned almost to normal. In fact, after a few days of Patriot intercepts, some Israelis responded to the warning sirens, not by going to the shelters, but by going to the roofs of buildings and into the streets near the Patriots to observe the night's events. The Patriot in Desert Storm worked, and worked well, against a threat that was considerably beyond what Patriot was designed to counter. The threat moved 40 percent faster...