Demography

Demography
Volume 43, Number 3, August 2006

CONTENTS

    Case, Anne, 1958-
    Ardington, Cally.
  • The Impact of Parental Death on School Outcomes: Longitudinal Evidence From South Africa
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    Subject Headings:
    • Academic achievement -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal -- Longitudinal studies.
    • Orphans -- Education -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal -- Longitudinal studies.
    Abstract:
      We analyze longitudinal data from a demographic surveillance area (DSA) in KwaZulu-Natal to examine the impact of parental death on children's outcomes. The results show signifi cant differences in the impact of mothers' and fathers' deaths. The loss of a child's mother is a strong predictor of poor schooling outcomes. Maternal orphans are significantly less likely to be enrolled in school and have completed significantly fewer years of schooling, conditional on age, than children whose mothers are alive. Less money is spent on maternal orphans' educations, on average, conditional on enrollment. Moreover, children whose mothers have died appear to be at an educational disadvantage when compared with non-orphaned children with whom they live. We use the timing of mothers' deaths relative to children's educational shortfalls to argue that mothers' deaths have a causal effect on children's educations. The loss of a child's father is a significant correlate of poor household socioeconomic status. However, the death of a father between waves of the survey has no significant effect on subsequent asset ownership. Evidence from the South African 2001 Census suggests that the estimated effects of maternal deaths on children's outcomes in the Africa Centre DSA reflect the reality for orphans throughout South Africa.
    Martin, Molly A.
  • Family Structure and Income Inequality in Families With Children, 1976 to 2000
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    Subject Headings:
    • Family -- Economic aspects -- United States -- History -- 20th century.
    • Income distribution -- United States -- History -- 20th century.
    Abstract:
      Using 24 years of data from the March supplements to the Current Population Survey and detailed categories of family structure, including cohabiting unions, I assess the contribution of changes in family structure to the dramatic rise in family income inequality. Between 1976 and 2000, family structure shifts explain 41% of the increase in inequality, but the influence of family structure change is not uniform within this period or across racial-ethnic groups. In general, the estimated role of family structure change is inversely related to the magnitude of the changes in inequality. Furthermore, by including cohabitation, I find lower levels of total inequality and a weaker role for demographic shifts in family structure for trends in income inequality.
    Brown, Susan L.
  • Family Structure Transitions and Adolescent Well-being
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    Subject Headings:
    • Family -- United States.
    • Teenagers -- United States -- Conduct of life.
    • Teenagers -- Mental health -- United States.
    • Teenagers -- Education -- United States.
    Abstract:
      Using data from Waves 1 and 2 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, I extend prior research on family transitions and adolescent well-being by examining the influence of parental marital and cohabitation transitions on adolescent delinquency, depression, and school engagement. Adolescents who experienced a family transition reported decreased well-being, on average, relative to those in stable, two-biological-parent families. Specific comparisons of various types of family stability and change revealed that cohabitation is often associated with poorer outcomes. Moving out of a cohabiting stepfamily into a single-mother family was not harmful and was actually associated with improvements in school engagement. Moving into a cohabiting stepfamily from a single-mother family decreased adolescent well-being, and this impact was greater than that experienced by those who moved into a married stepfamily. Stable cohabiting stepfamilies were associated with lower levels of well-being than stable married stepfamilies. Formalization of a cohabiting stepfamily through marriage did not translate into any appreciable benefits for adolescent well-being.
    Choo, Eugene.
    Siow, Aloysius.
  • Estimating a Marriage Matching Model With Spillover Effects
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    Subject Headings:
    • Marriage -- Canada -- Mathematical models.
    • Unmarried couples -- Canada -- Mathematical models.
    Abstract:
      We use marriage matching functions to study how marital patterns change when population supplies change. Specifically, we use a behavioral marriage matching function with spill over effects to rationalize marriage and cohabitation behavior in contemporary Canada. The model can estimate a couple's systematic gains to marriage and cohabitation relative to remaining single. These gains are invariant to changes in population supplies. Instead, changes in population supplies redistribute these gains between a couple. Although the model is behavioral, it is nonparametric. It can fit any observed cross-sectional marriage matching distribution. We use the estimated model to quantify the impacts of gender differences in mortality rates and the baby boom on observed marital behavior in Canada. The higher mortality rate of men makes men scarcer than women. We show that the scarceness of men modestly reduced the welfare of women and increased the welfare of men in the marriage market. On the other hand, the baby boom increased older men's net gains to entering the marriage market and lowered middle-aged women's net gains.
    Berry, Brent.
  • Friends for Better or for Worse: Interracial Friendship in the United States as Seen Through Wedding Party Photos
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    Subject Headings:
    • Interracial friendship -- United States.
    • Social networks -- United States.
    Abstract:
      Friendship patterns are instrumental for testing important hypotheses about assimilation processes and group boundaries. Wedding photos provide an opportunity to directly observe a realistic representation of close interracial friendships and race relations. An analysis of 1,135 wedding party photos and related information shows that whites are especially unlikely to have black friends who are close enough to be in their wedding party. Adjusting for group size, whites and East and Southeast Asians (hereafter, E/SE Asians) are equally likely to be in each other's weddings, but whites invite blacks to be in their wedding parties only half as much as blacks invite whites, and E/SE Asians invite blacks only one-fifth as much as blacks invite E/SE Asians. In interracial marriages, both E/SE Asian and black spouses in marriages to whites are significantly less likely than their white spouses to have close friendships with members of their spouse's race.
    Perreira, Krista M.
    Harris, Kathleen Mullan, 1950-
    Lee, Dohoon.
  • Making It in America: High School Completion by Immigrant and Native Youth
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    Subject Headings:
    • Academic achievement -- United States.
    • High school dropouts -- United States.
    • Immigrants -- Education -- United States.
    Abstract:
      Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we find that first-generation youth of Hispanic, Asian, and African heritage obtain more education than their parents, but the second generation and third or higher generations lose ground. Differences in dropout rates by race-ethnicity and immigrant generation are driven by differences in human, cultural, and social capital. Low levels of family human capital, school social capital, and community social capital place the children of immigrants at risk of dropping out. However, cultural capital and immigrant optimism buffer first-generation Hispanic youth and the children of Asian immigrants from the risk of dropping out of high school. While human and social capital resources improve with immigrant generation, cultural capital diminishes.
    Stewart, Jay.
  • Male Nonworkers: Who Are They and Who Supports Them?
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    Subject Headings:
    • Hard-core unemployed -- United States -- Economic conditions -- Longitudinal studies.
    Abstract:
      Although male nonworkers have become a larger fraction of the population since the late 1960s, very little is known about who they are or who supports them. Using data from the March Current Population Survey and the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this article fills that void. The picture that emerges is that there is a small cadre of marginal workers who often do not work for periods of a year or more. The vast majority of nonworking men (men who do not work at all during the year) receive unearned income from at least one source, and the amount of unearned income they receive varies significantly by their reason for not working. Family members provide an important alternative source of support for nonworking men who have little or no unearned income of their own.
    Schoen, Robert.
    Canudas Romo, Vladimir.
  • Multistate Cohort Models With Proportional Transfer Rates
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    Subject Headings:
    • Demography -- Mathematical models.
    Abstract:
      We present a new, broadly applicable approach to summarizing the behavior of a cohort as itmoves through a variety of statuses (or states). The approach is based on the assumption that all ratesof transfer maintain a constant ratio to one another over age. We present closed-form expressions forthe size and state composition of the cohort at every age and provide expressions for other useful summary measures. The state trajectories, or life course schematics, depict all the possible size and state configurations that the cohort can exhibit over its life course under the specifi ed pattern of transfer rates. The two living state case and hierarchical multistate models with any number of living states are analyzed in detail. Applying our approach to 1997 U.S. fertility data, we find that observed rates of parity progression are roughly proportional over age. Our proportional transfer rate approach provides trajectories by parity state and facilitates analyses of the implications of changes in parity rate levels and patterns. More women complete childbearing at parity 2 than at any other parity, andparity 2 would be the modal parity in models with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 1.40 to 2.61. Increases in parity progression rates to parities 4 and above have little effect on a cohort's TFR, while changes in childlessness have a substantial impact.
    Gakidou, Emmanuela E.
    King, Gary, 1958-
  • Death by Survey: Estimating Adult Mortality Without Selection Bias From Sibling Survival Data
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    Subject Headings:
    • Mortality -- Mathematical models.
    Abstract:
      The widely used methods for estimating adult mortality rates from sample survey responses aboutthe survival of siblings, parents, spouses, and others depend crucially on an assumption that, as we demonstrate, does not hold in real data. We show that when this assumption is violated so that the mortality rate varies with sibship size, mortality estimates can be massively biased. By using insights from work on the statistical analysis of selection bias, survey weighting, and extrapolation problems, we propose a new and relatively simple method of recovering the mortality rate with both greatly reduced potential for bias and increased clarity about the source of necessary assumptions.



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