Demography

Demography
Volume 42, Number 4, November 2005

CONTENTS

    Hirschman, Charles.
  • Immigration and the American Century
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    Subject Headings:
    • United States -- Emigration and immigration -- Social aspects -- History -- 20th century.
    • Labor market -- United States -- History -- 20th century.
    • United States -- Population -- History -- 20th century.
    • National characteristics, American -- History -- 20th century.
    Abstract:
      The full impact of immigration on American society is obscured in policy and academic analyses that focus on the short-term problems of immigrant adjustment. With a longer-term perspective, which includes the socioeconomic roles of the children of immigrants, immigration appears as one of the defining characteristics of twentieth-century America. Major waves of immigration create population diversity with new languages and cultures, but over time, while immigrants and their descendants become more "American," the character of American society and culture is transformed. In the early decades of the twentieth century, immigrants and their children were the majority of the workforce in many of the largest industrial cities; in recent decades, the arrival of immigrants and their families has slowed the demographic and economic decline of some American cities. The presence of immigrants probably creates as many jobs for native-born workers as are lost through displacement. Immigrants and their children played an important role in twentieth-century American politics and were influential in the development of American popular culture during the middle decades of the twentieth century. Intermarriage between the descendants of immigrants and old-stock Americans fosters a national identity based on civic participation rather than ancestry.
    Schwartz, Christine R.
    Mare, Robert D.
  • Trends in Educational Assortative Marriage From 1940 to 2003
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    Subject Headings:
    • Mate selection -- United States -- History.
    • Education -- Social aspects -- United States -- History.
    Abstract:
      This paper reports trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003 in the United States. Analyses of census and Current Population Survey data show that educational homogamy decreased from 1940 to 1960 but increased from 1960 to 2003. From 1960 to the early 1970s, increases in educational homogamy were generated by decreasing intermarriage among groups of relatively well-educated persons. College graduates, in particular, were increasingly likely to marry each other rather than those with less education. Beginning in the early 1970s, however, continued increases in the odds of educational homogamy were generated by decreases in intermarriage at both ends of the education distribution. Most striking is the decline in the odds that those with very low levels of education marry up. Intermarriage between college graduates and those with "some college" continued to decline but at a more gradual pace. As intermarriage declined at the extremes of the education distribution, intermarriage among those in the middle portion of the distribution increased. These trends, which are similar for a broad cross section of married couples and for newlyweds, are consistent with a growing social divide between those with very low levels of education and those with more education in the United States.
    Steele, Fiona.
    Kallis, Constantinos.
    Goldstein, Harvey.
    Joshi, Heather.
  • The Relationship Between Childbearing and Transitions From Marriage and Cohabitation in Britain
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    Subject Headings:
    • Fertility, Human -- Social aspects -- Great Britain.
    • Marriage -- Great Britain.
    • Unmarried couples -- Great Britain.
    Abstract:
      In this article, we describe a general framework for the analysis of correlated event histories, with an application to a study of partnership transitions and fertility among a cohort of British women. Using a multilevel, multistate competing-risks model, we examine the relationship between prior fertility outcomes (the presence and characteristics of children and current pregnancy) and the dissolution of marital and cohabiting unions and movements from cohabitation to marriage. Using a simultaneous-equations model, we model these partnership transitions jointly with fertility, allowing for correlation between the unobserved woman-level characteristics that affect each process. The analysis is based on the partnership and birth histories that were collected for the 1958 birth cohort (National Child Development Study) aged 16–42. The findings indicate that preschool children have a stabilizing effect on their parents' partnership, whether married or cohabiting, but the effect is weaker for older children. There is also evidence that although pregnancy precipitates marriage among cohabitors, the odds of marriage decline to prepregnancy levels following a birth.
    Rodgers, Joseph Lee.
    St. John, Craig A.
    Coleman, Ronnie.
  • Did Fertility Go Up After the Oklahoma City Bombing? An Analysis of Births in Metropolitan Counties in Oklahoma, 1990-1999
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    Subject Headings:
    • Oklahoma City Federal Building Bombing, Oklahoma City, Okla., 1995 -- Social aspects.
    • Fertility, Human -- Social aspects -- Oklahoma -- Oklahoma City.
    Abstract:
      Political and sociocultural events (e.g., Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 and the German reunification in 1989) and natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Hugo in 1989) can affect fertility. In our research, we addressed the question of whether the Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995, a man-made disaster, influenced fertility patterns in Oklahoma. We defined three theoretical orientations—replacement theory, community influence theory, and terror management theory—that motivate a general expectation of birth increases, with different predictions emerging from time and geographic considerations. We used two different empirical methodologies. First, we fitted dummy-variable regression models to monthly birth data from 1990 to 1999 in metropolitan counties. We used birth counts to frame the problem and general fertility rates to address the problem formally. These analyses were organized within two design structures: a control-group interrupted time-series design and a difference-in-differences design. In these analyses, Oklahoma County showed an interpretable, consistent, and significant increase in births. Second, we used graphical smoothing models to display these effects visually. In combination, these methods provide compelling support for a fertility response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Certain parts of each theory helped us organize and understand the pattern of results.
    Yu, Wei-Hsin.
  • Changes in Women's Postmarital Employment in Japan and Taiwan
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    Subject Headings:
    • Married women -- Employment -- Japan.
    • Married women -- Employment -- Taiwan.
    • Women -- Japan -- Social conditions.
    • Women -- Taiwan -- Social conditions.
    Abstract:
      Research on female labor-force participation has not fully explained why economic development has different effects on married women's employment continuity across societies. I use life-history data from nationally representative samples of women in Japan and Taiwan to examine the divergence in women's patterns of labor-force exit in these two countries during the postwar period. The findings reveal that the effects of family demands, occupation, firm size, and employment sector on women's exit rates differed substantially between Japan and Taiwan. Taken together, these factors account for the different trends in married women's employment during this period. I argue that the cross-national differences in the predictors of women's labor-force withdrawal reflect the extent of incompatibility between work and family responsibilities for married women in these two societies.
    Gronniger, J. Timothy.
  • Familial Obesity as a Proxy for Omitted Variables in the Obesity-Mortality Relationship
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    Subject Headings:
    • Obesity -- Risk factors -- United States.
    • Obesity -- United States -- Mortality.
    Abstract:
      In a conventional survival analysis of a sample of the U.S. population in 1971–1974, the association between mortality and obesity is compared with the analogous risk from the presence of an obese person in a household. The two factors have similar risk profiles, with a hazard ratio of 1.44 for nonmorbid obesity and 1.48 for nonmorbid familial obesity in one sample. If "familial obesity" cannot directly affect personal longevity, and if shared factors determine both personal and familial obesity, the mortality risk of family and actual personal obesity is similarly overstated. This false positive in the estimated risk arises from correlations among obesity and unobserved environmental, behavioral, or genetic factors.
    Sandberg, John.
  • The Influence of Network Mortality Experience on Nonnumeric Response Concerning Expected Family Size: Evidence From a Nepalese Mountain Village
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    Subject Headings:
    • Infants -- Nepal -- Mortality.
    • Family size -- Nepal.
    • Fertility, Human -- Nepal.
    Abstract:
      This article investigates the effects of sociometric network members' self-reported experiences with infant mortality on nonnumeric responses regarding expected family size among women in a small Nepalese community. The hypotheses tested include (1) that uncertainty about child survival, measured as average infant mortality across social networks, increases the likelihood of a nonnumeric response and (2) that this effect will be stronger when there is less variance in infant mortality experience within women's networks. The results suggest that nonnumeric response may be related to uncertainty about mortality derived through social learning.
    Ford, Kathleen.
    Hosegood, Victoria.
  • AIDS Mortality and the Mobility of Children in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa
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    Subject Headings:
    • AIDS (Disease) -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal -- Mortality.
    • Social mobility -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal.
    • Children -- South Africa -- KwaZulu-Natal -- Social conditions.
    Abstract:
      This paper examines the effect of parental death on the mobility of 39,163 children aged 0–17 in rural KwaZulu Natal, South Africa, in 2000 and 2001. Parental mortality from all causes prior to and during follow-up increased the risk of a child moving by nearly two times after we controlled for the age and gender of the child and household characteristics. However, in the follow-up period, child mobility following maternal deaths from AIDS was lower than child mobility following maternal deaths from other causes. Younger children, boys, and children whose mothers or fathers were resident members of the children's households were also less likely to move.
    Stecklov, Guy.
    Winters, Paul.
    Stampini, Marco.
    Davis, Benjamin, 1964-
  • Do Conditional Cash Transfers Influence Migration? A Study Using Experimental Data From the Mexican PROGRESA Program
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    Subject Headings:
    • Mexico -- Emigration and immigration -- Economic aspects -- History -- 20th century.
    • United States -- Emigration and immigration -- Economic aspects -- History -- 20th century.
    • Poverty -- Government policy -- Mexico.
    Abstract:
      Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. We use experimental data from PROGRESA, Mexico's primary poverty-reduction program, to evaluate the effects of conditional cash transfers on migration both domestically and to the United States. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles to the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. Analysis based on the data collected before and after the program's onset shows that conditional transfers reduce U.S. migration but not domestic migration. The data also enable us to explore the role of existing family and community migration networks. The results show that migration networks strongly influence migration, but that the effect of conditional transfers on migration is apparently not mediated by existing migration network structures. Our results suggest that conditional transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the United States.
    Johnson, Kenneth M. (Kenneth Michael), 1950-
    Voss, Paul R.
    Hammer, Roger B.
    Fuguitt, Glenn Victor, 1928-
    McNiven, Scott.
  • Temporal and Spatial Variation in Age-Specific Net Migration in the United States
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    Subject Headings:
    • Migration, Internal -- United States.
    • Population geography -- United States.
    Abstract:
      As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration "signature patterns" for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this "neighborhood" approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.



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