Introduction

[ 54 ] asia policy Introduction Andrew Scobell & Roy Kamphausen China is the emerging power with “the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States,” according to the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report. Issued by the U.S. Department of Defense, the report contends that China has significant potential to “field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages absent U.S. counter strategies.” Given that China’s defense spending and military modernization has grown at a constant pace without interruption for well over a decade, the entire international community is questioning the purpose of this sustained build-up. How big could China’s military become? How capable could the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) become? Why the build-up? To answer these questions, the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) and the U.S. Army WarCollegeStrategicStudiesInstitute(SSI)convenedscholarsandanalystsfor the 2006 PLA conference “Exploring the ‘Right Size’ for China’s Military: PLA Missions, Functions, and Organization” at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. A year earlier, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice observed in an interview that China’s “military buildup looks outsized for their regional concerns.” The above questions and Secretary Rice’s comment beg the question: what would a “right-sized” PLA look like? What might an armed forces consistent with Beijing’s legitimate self-defense requirements look like—in terms of China’s  U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 6, 2006, 29 u http:// www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/QDR20060203.pdf.  Former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld raised similar questions during a June 2005 speech in Singapore. He asked: “Since no nation threatens China, one must wonder: Why this growing investment [in defense]? Why these continuing large and expanded arms purchases? Why these continued deployments?” Donald Rumsfeld, (speech at 6th International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-la Dialogue, Singapore, June 4, 2005) u http://www.iiss.org/conferences/ the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2005/2005-speeches/first-plenary-session-the-hondonald -rumsfeld.  Condoleezza Rice, “Interview with the CBS News Editorial Board,” New York City, September 12, 2005 u http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/53033.htm. Andrew Scobell is Associate Research Professor in the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Dickinson College both located in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. He is the author of China’s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March (2003) and other publications. He can be reached at . Roy Kamphausen is Vice President of Political and Security Affairs and Director of the Washington, D.C office at The National Bureau of Asian Research. He is a retired U.S. Army China Foreign Area Officer and previously served as a military attaché in Beijing, as an intelligence analyst, as strategic plans officer on the Joint Staff, and as the China Country Director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He can be reached at . [ 55 ] roundtable • sizing the chinese military national security strategy, regional and global requirements and expectations, and domestic drivers? To address these questions, the PLA conference presenters worked to provide insight into future Chinese defense planning, China’s strategic intentions, and potential PLA missions. A volume edited by Kamphausen and Scobell, Right Sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military (Army War College Press, forthcoming), will reproduce the complete set of conference papers. This edited volume—the culmination of research and discussion from the 2006 PLA Conference—will consider the force structure of the PLA as well as the latest training, doctrinal, and procurement efforts across the arms and services of China’s military forces. Organized on a service-by-service basis this assessment will provide new insights into the drivers behind the size, posture, and arming of the Chinese military. China’s military intentions have long been shrouded in a veil of secrecy; the papers in this upcoming edited volume draw vital information from a diverse assortment of Chinese and U.S. sources to illuminate these hidden contours, offering perspectives and conclusions with far-reaching implications for policymakers and defense leaders in the United States and worldwide. The Asia Policy roundtable that follows...