The Future Force Structure of the Chinese Air Force

[ 95 ] roundtable • sizing the chinese military The Future Force Structure of the Chinese Air Force Phillip C. Saunders & Erik Quam The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is in the midst of a major modernization campaign aimed at retiring and replacing obsolete aircraft and building a modern air force. Despite fifteen years of modernization efforts, China’s air force is still in transition between the type of force fielded by the PLAAF over its first fifty years and the development of a “new PLAAF” with modern equipment, doctrine, and capabilities. The thousands of J-6 fighters that once made up the Chinese fighter fleet have been retired; about one thousand older J-7 and J-8 fighters remain in service. The aircraft that will comprise the future PLAAF have begun to enter service, including 32 Russian-built Su-27UBK multi-role fighters and 116 F-11 Chinaassembled Su-27 variants, 73 Russian Su-30MKK fighters, and 62 of the new indigenously produced J-10 multi-role fighter. China is also developing and purchasing force multipliers including advanced transport aircraft, tankers, and early-warning aircraft. The Chinese vision is of a highly-trained modern air force equipped with high-tech aircraft, advanced precision-guided munitions, support aircraft that serve as force multipliers, and networked command-and-control and intelligence capabilities that allow the PLAAF to fight and win a high-tech war under “informationalized” conditions. This force would not only be more capable of carrying out missions such as air defense and support for ground forces against a modern adversary but could also undertake offensive strikes against ground and naval targets farther from China’s borders. The  International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2007 (New York: Routledge, 2007), 350.  Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, China’s National Defense in 2006 (Beijing, December 29, 2006) u http://www.china.org.cn/e-white/; and Ken Allen, “PLA Air Force Mobile Offensive Operations,” Taiwan Defense Affairs 3, no. 2 (Winter 2002/2003): 120–45. Phillip C. Saunders, PhD is Senior Research Fellow at the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies. He can be reached at . Erik Quam was was an intern at the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies in summer 2006 and recently received a master’s degree from the Monterey Institute of International Studies. He can be reached at . note u The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. This essay is a shortened version of a paper originally presented at the conference “Exploring the ‘Right Size’ for China’s Military: PLA Missions, Functions, and Organization,” Carlisle Barracks, PA, October 6–8, 2006 and to be included in Roy Kamphausen and Andrew Scobell, eds., Right Sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military (Carlisle, PA: Army War College Press, forthcoming). [ 96 ] asia policy new PLAAF will integrate support systems such as airborne early-warning aircraft, aerial refueling tankers, intelligence collection and jamming aircraft to increase the effectiveness of combat aircraft and enhance war fighting capability. Air force modernization will also include larger numbers of more capable air transports, which will enhance the effectiveness of PLAAF airborne forces for internal and external missions. The Chinese air force of the future will consist of fewer, but more capable, aircraft and support systems. Yet the total size and precise mix of foreign and domestic aircrafts remain open questions. This essay, drawn from a longer book chapter, seeks to illuminate the future force structure of the PLAAF by exploring the key decisions and trade-offs likely to shape the aircraft and capabilities that the Chinese air force will pursue. The emphasis is on the choices that will determine the future force structure of the PLAAF, with the goal of illustrating a range of possibilities and providing a guide to interpreting future developments. Key Modernization Choices Division of labor. Missions such as air defense and conventional strike can be performed by several different types of weapon systems and assigned...