In Pursuit of the Lord's Resistance Army: How to Deter Illegal Resource Extraction by Ugandan Forces

On 14 December 2008, Uganda, the DRC, and Sudan launched Operation Lightning Thunder against Lord's Resistance Army camps in the DRC, with U.S. support. The possibility of illegal resource extraction by Ugandan forces during and immediately after the operation was a key concern for the Congolese government. This article draws on game theory to examine how the DRC was able to deter such extraction. It finds that deterrence is possible when the difference in cost between a large and small Congolese force, less the loss of resource rents for a DRC that commits a small force, is positive, and when this is less than double the domestic political support President Kabila has at stake. Understanding these dynamics is crucial, given current plans for a similar operation.